We expect normal seasonal softness in 4Q:25 results following stronger midyear performance, with a moderation in customer inventory levels and promotional activity. For 4Q:25, we model sales of $461.1 million, up 0.55% year over year.
By segment, we model flat year over year sales in Sustainable & Adhesive Solutions (SAS) and 1.63% year over year growth in Filtration & Advanced Materials (FAM), reflecting continued stabilization within FAM and steady execution in SAS.
We model adjusted EPS of $0.09 in 4Q:25 compared to $0.05 in 4Q:24.
We expect 4Q results to reflect typical year-end seasonality, including customer inventory management and fixed cost absorption dynamics, and do not view a softer quarterly cadence as indicative of underlying deterioration in operating performance.
Management continues to execute on its strategic portfolio review, including SKU rationalization and footprint optimization initiatives, which we believe support improved operating efficiency entering 2026.
We view the appointment of Scott Minder as chief financial officer as a natural progression of CEO Shruti Singhal's strategy to strengthen the leadership team and enhance financial discipline ahead of anticipated refinancing activity.
Mativ ended 3Q:25 with net debt of $932 million, a leverage ratio of 4.2x, and liquidity of $517 million. We expect continued focus on free cash flow generation and deleveraging as the company prepares to address upcoming maturities.
We maintain our $21 price target on MATV shares, which remains based on a 17x multiple to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $1.25. New leadership, combined with the company's portfolio transformation and focus on the higher-growth platforms of its business, support our moderate risk rating.
13 Feb 2026
In Our View, 4Q:25 Seasonal Moderation Masks Structural Progress As Execution, Portfolio Discipline, And Deleveraging Continue; Maintain $21 Price Target
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In Our View, 4Q:25 Seasonal Moderation Masks Structural Progress As Execution, Portfolio Discipline, And Deleveraging Continue; Maintain $21 Price Target
Schweitzer-Mauduit International (SWM:NYSE) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
13 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Daniel Harriman -
Pages:
10 -
We expect normal seasonal softness in 4Q:25 results following stronger midyear performance, with a moderation in customer inventory levels and promotional activity. For 4Q:25, we model sales of $461.1 million, up 0.55% year over year.
By segment, we model flat year over year sales in Sustainable & Adhesive Solutions (SAS) and 1.63% year over year growth in Filtration & Advanced Materials (FAM), reflecting continued stabilization within FAM and steady execution in SAS.
We model adjusted EPS of $0.09 in 4Q:25 compared to $0.05 in 4Q:24.
We expect 4Q results to reflect typical year-end seasonality, including customer inventory management and fixed cost absorption dynamics, and do not view a softer quarterly cadence as indicative of underlying deterioration in operating performance.
Management continues to execute on its strategic portfolio review, including SKU rationalization and footprint optimization initiatives, which we believe support improved operating efficiency entering 2026.
We view the appointment of Scott Minder as chief financial officer as a natural progression of CEO Shruti Singhal's strategy to strengthen the leadership team and enhance financial discipline ahead of anticipated refinancing activity.
Mativ ended 3Q:25 with net debt of $932 million, a leverage ratio of 4.2x, and liquidity of $517 million. We expect continued focus on free cash flow generation and deleveraging as the company prepares to address upcoming maturities.
We maintain our $21 price target on MATV shares, which remains based on a 17x multiple to our 2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $1.25. New leadership, combined with the company's portfolio transformation and focus on the higher-growth platforms of its business, support our moderate risk rating.