We model 2Q:F26 sales of $704.3 million, down 0.9% year over year, reflecting a 1.5% decline in Tobacco Operations and 3.7% growth in Ingredients Operations. Our forecast calls for adjusted EPS of $1.34 compared to $1.45 in 2Q:F25.
In Tobacco Operations, we model an 18.5% gross margin for 2Q:F26. Management reported 1Q:F26 tobacco revenue of $505 million and operating income of $36 million, noting that an 8% volume decline from reduced carryover shipments was offset by a favorable product mix, particularly in Asia.
In Ingredients Operations, we model a 21.5% gross margin for 2Q:F26. Management reported 1Q:F26 revenue of $89 million, up from $85 million in 1Q:F25. The company cited higher volumes, less favorable mix, tariff-related demand constraints, and higher fixed costs associated with the Lancaster, Pennsylvania, expansion. Management has indicated that expected revenue growth and margin expansion are driven by operating leverage, mix improvement, and cross-selling across FruitSmart, Silva, and Shank's Extracts.
We forecast 2Q:F26 free cash flow (FCF) of $73.3 million and continue to model FCF of $263 million in F2026 and $259 million in F2027.
At the end of 1Q:F26, UVV held $178 million in cash and reported net debt of $1.065 billion, representing 42% of net capitalization and 3.2x leverage. The company has no significant maturities until F2028, and planned capital expenditures of $45-$55 million in F2026 focus on efficiency, sustainability, and selective capacity expansion.
We maintain our $78 price target on UVV shares, which remains based on an intact 17x multiple to our F2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $4.61. The company's consistent free cash flow generation, conservative leverage, and reliable operating performance continue to support our moderate risk rating.
30 Oct 2025
Tobacco Stability And Ingredients Execution Reinforce Cash Flow Visibility; Reliable Dividend And Expanding Platform Underscore Undervalued Shares, In Our View; Maintain $78 Price Target
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Tobacco Stability And Ingredients Execution Reinforce Cash Flow Visibility; Reliable Dividend And Expanding Platform Underscore Undervalued Shares, In Our View; Maintain $78 Price Target
We model 2Q:F26 sales of $704.3 million, down 0.9% year over year, reflecting a 1.5% decline in Tobacco Operations and 3.7% growth in Ingredients Operations. Our forecast calls for adjusted EPS of $1.34 compared to $1.45 in 2Q:F25.
In Tobacco Operations, we model an 18.5% gross margin for 2Q:F26. Management reported 1Q:F26 tobacco revenue of $505 million and operating income of $36 million, noting that an 8% volume decline from reduced carryover shipments was offset by a favorable product mix, particularly in Asia.
In Ingredients Operations, we model a 21.5% gross margin for 2Q:F26. Management reported 1Q:F26 revenue of $89 million, up from $85 million in 1Q:F25. The company cited higher volumes, less favorable mix, tariff-related demand constraints, and higher fixed costs associated with the Lancaster, Pennsylvania, expansion. Management has indicated that expected revenue growth and margin expansion are driven by operating leverage, mix improvement, and cross-selling across FruitSmart, Silva, and Shank's Extracts.
We forecast 2Q:F26 free cash flow (FCF) of $73.3 million and continue to model FCF of $263 million in F2026 and $259 million in F2027.
At the end of 1Q:F26, UVV held $178 million in cash and reported net debt of $1.065 billion, representing 42% of net capitalization and 3.2x leverage. The company has no significant maturities until F2028, and planned capital expenditures of $45-$55 million in F2026 focus on efficiency, sustainability, and selective capacity expansion.
We maintain our $78 price target on UVV shares, which remains based on an intact 17x multiple to our F2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $4.61. The company's consistent free cash flow generation, conservative leverage, and reliable operating performance continue to support our moderate risk rating.