Our 4Q:25 loss per share estimate of $0.08 is compared with the $0.02 loss reported in 4Q:24 due to anticipated margin contraction.
Management provided guidance last November that included revenue of $399-$424 million, gross margin contraction of 370-410 basis points year over year due to prior year workers' compensation reserve adjustments and revenue mix shifts.
Our revenue estimate of $413.4 million is consistent with management guidance and implies a 7.1% gain year over year due to improving client activity.
We forecast a loss per share of $0.51 in 2025, followed by EPS resumption of $0.49 in 2026 and $0.88 in 2027.
Our free cash flow (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) per share estimates of $0.49 in 2025, $1.17 in 2026 and $1.69 in 2027 imply FCF yields of 10.9%, 25.9% and 37.3%, respectively.
Our $10 price target is based on 10x our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.88, plus our projected 2027 year-end net cash per share of $0.94. On a P/E-only basis, our price target implies an 11.4x multiple to our 2027 EPS estimate. Shares of TrueBlue have traded at an average forward P/E multiple of 13.2x over the last decade, compared to our five-year EPS CAGR of 14%.
Free cash flow generation and a solid balance sheet support the valuation and our moderate risk rating, in our view.
17 Feb 2026
Our 4Q:25 Loss Per Share Forecast Of $0.08 Is Based On Expected Margin Contraction; We Think Anticipated EPS Growth Resumption In 2026 And Free Cash Flow Support Our $10 Price Target
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Our 4Q:25 Loss Per Share Forecast Of $0.08 Is Based On Expected Margin Contraction; We Think Anticipated EPS Growth Resumption In 2026 And Free Cash Flow Support Our $10 Price Target
Our 4Q:25 loss per share estimate of $0.08 is compared with the $0.02 loss reported in 4Q:24 due to anticipated margin contraction.
Management provided guidance last November that included revenue of $399-$424 million, gross margin contraction of 370-410 basis points year over year due to prior year workers' compensation reserve adjustments and revenue mix shifts.
Our revenue estimate of $413.4 million is consistent with management guidance and implies a 7.1% gain year over year due to improving client activity.
We forecast a loss per share of $0.51 in 2025, followed by EPS resumption of $0.49 in 2026 and $0.88 in 2027.
Our free cash flow (excluding the add back of stock-based compensation expense) per share estimates of $0.49 in 2025, $1.17 in 2026 and $1.69 in 2027 imply FCF yields of 10.9%, 25.9% and 37.3%, respectively.
Our $10 price target is based on 10x our 2027 EPS estimate of $0.88, plus our projected 2027 year-end net cash per share of $0.94. On a P/E-only basis, our price target implies an 11.4x multiple to our 2027 EPS estimate. Shares of TrueBlue have traded at an average forward P/E multiple of 13.2x over the last decade, compared to our five-year EPS CAGR of 14%.
Free cash flow generation and a solid balance sheet support the valuation and our moderate risk rating, in our view.