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  • 08 Aug 2025

Actinver Research - Real Estate Post 2Q25 Update


Concentradora Fibra Hotelera Mexicana SA de CV (FIHO12:MEX), 0 | Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB de CV (HOTEL:MEX), 0 | Fibra Inn (FINN13:MEX), 0 | FIBRA Macquarie Mexico (FIBRAMQ12:MEX), 0 | Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B. de C.V. (VESTA:MEX), 0 | Banco Invex SA Institucion de Banca Multiple Invex Grupo Financiero F/2157 (FMTY14:MEX), 0 | Prologis Property Mexico, S.A. de C.V. (FIBRAPL14:MEX), 0

  • Actinver
    • Antonio Hernandez | Enrique Covarrubias

    • 31 pages


 

We continue to see mixed performance across our Real Estate coverage. Industrial Real Estate companies have delivered solid operational performance, a trend that we expect to continue, driven by recent acquisitions and developments, as well as stable, inflation-indexed revenues from their stabilized portfolios, and despite ongoing uncertainty around trade relations and tariffs. Renewal rate increases remain solid across most of our covered companies, another signal of the resilient performance across the industry. Regarding manufacturing focused markets, new leasing activity slowed down during the first half of the year, reflecting a cautious stance from tenants, particularly in export-oriented markets —the second half is expected to show some recovery—. Despite this moderation, rents have remained resilient and occupancy rates continue to stand above historical averages. Mexico City and Guadalajara —logistics and e-commerce-focused markets— continue to show strong rental growth, approaching double-digit increases, and heightened activity from leading e-commerce players. Moreover, the economic environment has become increasingly favorable for the sector, with interest rates trending downward. Over the past 18 months, Banxico has cut its benchmark rate to 7.75% (from 11.25%), with further rate reductions expected from both the Bank of Mexico and the Federal Reserve throughout the remainder of 2025. The decline in interest rates has a dual positive impact on FIBRAs, as it increases the relative attractiveness of their distribution yields and lowers financing costs, which in turn encourages new investments and expansion projects. Within Industrial Real Estate, we continue to prefer FIBRAPL, VESTA and FMTY (Outperform) vs. FIBRAMQ (Market Perform). On the other hand, our covered Hotel companies continue focusing on driving RevPAR growth more via ADRs vs Occupancy rates. We expect this trend to continue in the near future, with the exception of HOTEL, a player that has improved both Occupancy rates and ADRs, in line with the leisure segment —beaches and resorts, more specifically—. Adverse FX trends, high inflation, and weak local and international consumer environments are among the macroeconomic conditions that could continue impacting our covered companies’ performance. Contrary to other industries, a strong MXN vs. the USD leads to overall headwinds as consumers see Mexico as a less attractive destination in terms of costs. Within Hotels & Hospitality, we remain Outperform on FINN, Market Perform on FIHO and HOTEL, and Underperform on HCITY.

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Actinver Research - Real Estate Post 2Q25 Update


Concentradora Fibra Hotelera Mexicana SA de CV (FIHO12:MEX), 0 | Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB de CV (HOTEL:MEX), 0 | Fibra Inn (FINN13:MEX), 0 | FIBRA Macquarie Mexico (FIBRAMQ12:MEX), 0 | Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B. de C.V. (VESTA:MEX), 0 | Banco Invex SA Institucion de Banca Multiple Invex Grupo Financiero F/2157 (FMTY14:MEX), 0 | Prologis Property Mexico, S.A. de C.V. (FIBRAPL14:MEX), 0

  • Published: 08 Aug 2025
  • Author: Antonio Hernandez | Enrique Covarrubias
  • Pages: 31
  • Actinver


We continue to see mixed performance across our Real Estate coverage. Industrial Real Estate companies have delivered solid operational performance, a trend that we expect to continue, driven by recent acquisitions and developments, as well as stable, inflation-indexed revenues from their stabilized portfolios, and despite ongoing uncertainty around trade relations and tariffs. Renewal rate increases remain solid across most of our covered companies, another signal of the resilient performance across the industry. Regarding manufacturing focused markets, new leasing activity slowed down during the first half of the year, reflecting a cautious stance from tenants, particularly in export-oriented markets —the second half is expected to show some recovery—. Despite this moderation, rents have remained resilient and occupancy rates continue to stand above historical averages. Mexico City and Guadalajara —logistics and e-commerce-focused markets— continue to show strong rental growth, approaching double-digit increases, and heightened activity from leading e-commerce players. Moreover, the economic environment has become increasingly favorable for the sector, with interest rates trending downward. Over the past 18 months, Banxico has cut its benchmark rate to 7.75% (from 11.25%), with further rate reductions expected from both the Bank of Mexico and the Federal Reserve throughout the remainder of 2025. The decline in interest rates has a dual positive impact on FIBRAs, as it increases the relative attractiveness of their distribution yields and lowers financing costs, which in turn encourages new investments and expansion projects. Within Industrial Real Estate, we continue to prefer FIBRAPL, VESTA and FMTY (Outperform) vs. FIBRAMQ (Market Perform). On the other hand, our covered Hotel companies continue focusing on driving RevPAR growth more via ADRs vs Occupancy rates. We expect this trend to continue in the near future, with the exception of HOTEL, a player that has improved both Occupancy rates and ADRs, in line with the leisure segment —beaches and resorts, more specifically—. Adverse FX trends, high inflation, and weak local and international consumer environments are among the macroeconomic conditions that could continue impacting our covered companies’ performance. Contrary to other industries, a strong MXN vs. the USD leads to overall headwinds as consumers see Mexico as a less attractive destination in terms of costs. Within Hotels & Hospitality, we remain Outperform on FINN, Market Perform on FIHO and HOTEL, and Underperform on HCITY.

More Content

More Content

Actinver Research - Industrial Real Estate: In the Mood for (Later) Growth (Coverage Initiation)

Companies: FMTY14 VESTA* FIBRAMQ FIBRAPL

Actinver

Erik Selin steps down as CEO

Companies: Fastighets AB Balder Class B

ABG Sundal Collier

Actinver Research - Real Estate Hotels & Hospitality: A Long and Winding Road (Coverage Initiation)

Companies: HOTEL* FIHO12 FINN13

Actinver

TRC: 2Q25 Highlights Company Encouraged by Terra Vista Leasing Trends

Companies: Tejon Ranch Company (TRC:NYSE)Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC:NYS)

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