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  • 10 Nov 2025

Actinver Research - Real Estate Post 3Q25 Update


Concentradora Fibra Hotelera Mexicana SA de CV (FIHO12:MEX), 0 | Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB de CV (HOTEL:MEX), 0 | Fibra Inn (FINN13:MEX), 0 | FIBRA Macquarie Mexico (FIBRAMQ12:MEX), 0 | Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B. de C.V. (VESTA:MEX), 0 | Banco Invex SA Institucion de Banca Multiple Invex Grupo Financiero F/2157 (FMTY14:MEX), 0 | Prologis Property Mexico, S.A. de C.V. (FIBRAPL14:MEX), 0

  • Actinver
    • Antonio Hernandez | Enrique Covarrubias

    • 27 pages


 

We continue to observe mixed performance across our Real Estate coverage. Industrial Real Estate companies once again delivered solid operational results —a trend we expect to persist— supported by ongoing development activity, and stable, inflation-linked revenues from their stabilized portfolios. Despite continued uncertainty surrounding trade relations and tariffs, renewal rate growth remains robust across our covered names, while vacancy rates remain below 6%, underscoring the sector’s resilience. In manufacturing-oriented markets, new leasing activity moderated over the year, particularly in export-driven regions. However, some markets are showing early signs of stabilization as construction starts to normalize following a period of accelerated expansion, which should translate into steadier vacancy rates ahead. Despite this moderation, rents have remained resilient, and occupancy levels continue to exceed historical averages in most markets. Mexico City and Guadalajara —key logistics and e-commerce hubs— remain the country’s strongest industrial markets. Mexico City continues to post record-high gross absorption, with rental growth of 20% YoY and vacancy at just 2%. Meanwhile, Guadalajara’s vacancy rate held stable at 2.8% QoQ, reflecting balanced market conditions that support both rent stability and sustained occupancy. Finally, the macroeconomic backdrop has become increasingly supportive for the sector, with interest rates trending lower. Within Industrial Real Estate, we maintain a preference for VESTA and FMTY (Outperform) over FIBRAMQ (Market Perform). We slightly increase our PTs for VESTA (to P$70) and FMTY (to P$17). On the other hand, our covered Hotel companies faced another challenging quarter amid persistent adverse conditions such as FX headwinds, weak international tourism trends (specially coming from the U.S.) and, surprisingly, a more limited capacity to pass inflation costs to its guests (reflected in a modest to muted ADR growth during 3Q25). Even though these conditions are expected to be more constructive going forward, a general cautious mood is perceived among companies. However, within the sector, there have been some recent moving pieces —from renewed business and operational strategies to preparations ahead of expected future demand due to FIFA World Cup 2026 celebration— perceived as relevant factors that should be considered going forward. Within Hotels & Hospitality, we remain Outperform on FINN and Market Perform on FIHO and HOTEL.

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Actinver Research - Real Estate Post 3Q25 Update


Concentradora Fibra Hotelera Mexicana SA de CV (FIHO12:MEX), 0 | Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB de CV (HOTEL:MEX), 0 | Fibra Inn (FINN13:MEX), 0 | FIBRA Macquarie Mexico (FIBRAMQ12:MEX), 0 | Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B. de C.V. (VESTA:MEX), 0 | Banco Invex SA Institucion de Banca Multiple Invex Grupo Financiero F/2157 (FMTY14:MEX), 0 | Prologis Property Mexico, S.A. de C.V. (FIBRAPL14:MEX), 0

  • Published: 10 Nov 2025
  • Author: Antonio Hernandez | Enrique Covarrubias
  • Pages: 27
  • Actinver


We continue to observe mixed performance across our Real Estate coverage. Industrial Real Estate companies once again delivered solid operational results —a trend we expect to persist— supported by ongoing development activity, and stable, inflation-linked revenues from their stabilized portfolios. Despite continued uncertainty surrounding trade relations and tariffs, renewal rate growth remains robust across our covered names, while vacancy rates remain below 6%, underscoring the sector’s resilience. In manufacturing-oriented markets, new leasing activity moderated over the year, particularly in export-driven regions. However, some markets are showing early signs of stabilization as construction starts to normalize following a period of accelerated expansion, which should translate into steadier vacancy rates ahead. Despite this moderation, rents have remained resilient, and occupancy levels continue to exceed historical averages in most markets. Mexico City and Guadalajara —key logistics and e-commerce hubs— remain the country’s strongest industrial markets. Mexico City continues to post record-high gross absorption, with rental growth of 20% YoY and vacancy at just 2%. Meanwhile, Guadalajara’s vacancy rate held stable at 2.8% QoQ, reflecting balanced market conditions that support both rent stability and sustained occupancy. Finally, the macroeconomic backdrop has become increasingly supportive for the sector, with interest rates trending lower. Within Industrial Real Estate, we maintain a preference for VESTA and FMTY (Outperform) over FIBRAMQ (Market Perform). We slightly increase our PTs for VESTA (to P$70) and FMTY (to P$17). On the other hand, our covered Hotel companies faced another challenging quarter amid persistent adverse conditions such as FX headwinds, weak international tourism trends (specially coming from the U.S.) and, surprisingly, a more limited capacity to pass inflation costs to its guests (reflected in a modest to muted ADR growth during 3Q25). Even though these conditions are expected to be more constructive going forward, a general cautious mood is perceived among companies. However, within the sector, there have been some recent moving pieces —from renewed business and operational strategies to preparations ahead of expected future demand due to FIFA World Cup 2026 celebration— perceived as relevant factors that should be considered going forward. Within Hotels & Hospitality, we remain Outperform on FINN and Market Perform on FIHO and HOTEL.

More Content

More Content

Actinver Research - Real Estate Post 2Q25 Update

Companies: FMTY14 HOTEL* VESTA* FIHO12 FIBRAMQ FINN13 FIBRAPL

Actinver

TRC: TRC Intends to Outline Growth Drivers & Plans to Improve Shareholder Value at Upcoming Investor Event

Companies: Tejon Ranch Company (TRC:NYSE)Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC:NYS)

Zacks Small Cap Research

Actinver Research - Industrial Real Estate: In the Mood for (Later) Growth (Coverage Initiation)

Companies: FMTY14 VESTA* FIBRAMQ FIBRAPL

Actinver

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 10.11.25 - CPX.L, RGG.L, PR1.L, BIRD.L, ENET.L

Companies: CPX BIRD ENET PR1 RGG

Allenby Capital

Actinver Research - Real Estate Hotels & Hospitality: A Long and Winding Road (Coverage Initiation)

Companies: HOTEL* FIHO12 FINN13

Actinver
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