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  • 27 Jul 2023

A perfect storm


Nexity (NXI:EPA), 0 | Nexity SA (NXI:PAR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Gelebart Laurent LG

    • 8 pages


 

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A perfect storm


Nexity (NXI:EPA), 0 | Nexity SA (NXI:PAR), 0

  • Published: 27 Jul 2023
  • Author: Gelebart Laurent LG
  • Pages: 8
  • BNP Paribas Exane


Bookings slightly below expectations H1 bookings were down 20% in volume, slightly below consensus (18%). In value, bookings were down 28%. While Nexity was heavily impacted by current market conditions, the company was able to outperform competitors by a wide margin. As for non-residential, order intakes in H1 were light, at EUR27m. H1 EBITA came in 18% below consensus H1 EBITA was EUR82m, 18% below consensus and down 25% yoy. In Residential, margins declined by 130bps, even though sales were resilient. This was due to extra-commercial efforts needed to close deals, the impact of rising construction costs and postponement of some programs. In Non Residential, the EBITA margin fell by 430bps to 8.7%, probably on average profitability of the Eco Campus project. Finally, services saw a sharp profitability decline, fully explained by the distribution activity. Leverage on the rise: risk management strengthened as is cost cutting At the end of H1 23, the leverage ratio stood at 2.7x (2.5x if including the disposal of Poland). It has therefore increased by 0.6x vs last year (2.1x). To reduce risks, the level of pre-bookings for a program to continue will be materially increased with Nexity aiming at a pre-booking rate of at least 60%. The company is also implementing a cost-cutting program, which should bring EUR30m of savings at cruising speed. Guidance cut, estimates cut, dividend cut and TP cut Nexity is aiming for FY23 sales of EUR4.3bn (excluding international) and an EBITA of cEUR250m (vs at least EUR300m previously). We cut our EPS estimates by c30% on average, reduce the dividend to EUR1.5 per share (from EUR2.5) and reduce our TP to EUR15 (from EUR22). Our TP is based on a DCF and 12m forward historical average applied to FY23E. The commitment of social landlords to acquire 50k units in the months to come should offer a buffer.

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