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20 Feb 2025
AAL, RIO, VALE, ERA, GLEN, US M&A, TIANQI

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AAL, RIO, VALE, ERA, GLEN, US M&A, TIANQI
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,374 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,262 | United States Steel Corporation (X:NYSE), 0 | United States Steel Corporation (X:NYS), 0 | Vale S.A. Sponsored ADR (VALE:NYS), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF:NYSE), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF:NYS), 0
- Published:
20 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Liu Mavis ML -
Pages:
20 -
In a nutshell:
. ANGLO AMERICAN (+) : 2H24 first take - Incremental EBITDA reported a beat, interesting long-term MOU with Codelco
. VALE (=) : 4Q24 first take - PandL and FCF miss, new buyback launched
. RIO TINTO (+) : 2H24 first take - divi better but disappointing unit cash cost guides
. ERAMET (=) : FY24 results in line, 2025 capex and volume guidance lighter
. GLENCORE (+) : Serious work being done on a potential relisting
. US MandA: Activist moves forward with proxy battle with X
. TIANQI LITHIUM (+) / TIANQI LITHIUM - H (+) : Kwinana Refinery Train 1 impairment finalized; in-line with expectation
Daily Prices as of February 19th
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PRICE MOVERS
. MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: Meeting minutes yesterday shows that Fed officials expressed their readiness to hold interest rates steady amid stubborn inflation and economic policy uncertainty. Trumps says it is possible to reach a fresh trade deal with China, signaling he is open to heading off a brewing trade fight. Base metals traded higher on the SHFE this morning amid a softer USD; copper +0.3%, zinc +0.1%, aluminium +0.5%, nickel +0.6%. Iron ore futures rose again today on the DCE (+2.2%) and SGX (+1.6%). Gold (2,950/oz) climbed to a new record on Thursday as geopolitical tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
. Macro data this week: US Initial jobless claims (prev 213k) and Eurozone consumer confidence (consensus -13.9) today, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (consensus 47.0) and US Manufacturing PMI (prev 51.2) due tomorrow.
. US MandA - Activist moves forward with proxy battle with X: Yesterday the activist investor Ancora Holdings (USD 10b AUM, based in Cleveland) hosted a conference call to address their position in proxy fight with US Steel (+). The call was joined by Ancora''s CEO James Chadwick and Selco''s former CEO Alan Kestenbaum. On the call, Ancora reiterated that US Steel should focus on a standalone turnaround rather than a sale. They called for US Steel to abandon the merger with...