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21 Jan 2025
Adjusting forecasts and TP ahead of FY results

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Adjusting forecasts and TP ahead of FY results
Imerys (NK:EPA), 0 | Imerys SA (NK:PAR), 0
- Published:
21 Jan 2025 -
Author:
Lahmidi Mourad ML -
Pages:
10 -
Good core business but continued weakness in Quartz
During a recent call with Imerys, the company confirmed its FY 2024 guidance aiming for an adj. EBITDA of EUR670m-690m (consensus at EUR674m and BNPPE at EUR690m). The trends during Q4 were said to be similar to Q3, i.e. 1) a gradual volume recovery in the core business with marginally positive pricing and 2) continued weakness in the Quartz joint venture. The group indicated that the softness in Quartz should carry on in 2025 as demand in solar remains weak with no sign of restocking. On the US talc litigation, the group was reasonably confident on a resolution following the claimants'' agreement reached in early January. A confirmation hearing will be held in April. Imerys will report FY24 results on 20th February after the close.
We trim our forecasts on softer Quartz and below EBITDA items
We lower our EPS forecasts by 4% this year and 12% in 2025. This is to reflect higher financial charges (this year and next year) and reduced contribution from the Quartz joint venture (next year). We have also taken into account non-recuring costs of EUR300m in 2024 linked to the mark-to-market impact of currencies following the sale of paper-related activities. For the core business, we expect LFL growth of 4% in 2025, including 3% from volumes and 1% from pricing.
Maintain Neutral; we lower our TP to EUR30 (from EUR33)
We reduce our TP to EUR30 from EUR33 (still based on the average of DCF and ROCE/WACC methods) on lower earnings. While we are encouraged by the gradual recovery of the core business, we see the Quartz JV as a downside risk to consensus. We maintain our Neutral rating.
Mourad Lahmidi
(+33) 1 42 99 50 63
mourad.lahmidi@bnpparibas.com