European sentiment poor. Q1 license sales likely challenging We spent much of the past two weeks in Paris and Frankfurt, and investor sentiment is poor. We imagine corporate sentiment is too. While in Germany, there is discussion for industrial companies to shut production several days / week in the event of a Russian gas embargo (link), in France, the increasing potential for a Far Right candidate to be elected President on April 24 (link) is increasing uncertainty. Not a great environment to sell software licenses. In addition, in our recent Cloud Scanner Survey (link) ~45% of Software Buyers now say consumption based pricing as their preferred model, vs ~30% for Subscription, and just 25% for Software Licenses (perpetual or term). Dassault Systemes particularly at risk with significant license exposure Consensus expects 19.4% of Q1 software revenues to come from licenses and 22.5% of FY software revenues. In addition, ''recurring'' software revenues have a term license component with annual renewals being largely recorded in FQ1. We also note that China, where the license model is preferred, had COVID lock downs at the end of March in the tech centric Shanghai and Shenzhen regions. Europe + APAC = 62% of revenues at Dassault. We expect just 5% c/c license growth in Q1 and the FY, vs guidance for 9-12% in Q1 and +10-12% for the FY (note, in Q3/Q4 2019, before COVID, DS delivered just ~1% licence growth when Germany/China was weak). We expect almost no EPS growth this year. We also believe margins peaked in 2021 at 34.3%, and the Cloud transition, which is in its early stages, along with weakening license demand, will limit organic EPS growth. SAP has high German exposure (15% of revs), but limited license exposure For SAP, licenses are now a much smaller contributor, at just 6% of Q1 consensus software sales and 10% for the FY as Cloud reaches ~50% of Software sales this year. We now model a 30% license decline for Q1 and FY as SAP...