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16 Apr 2025
CHINA MACRO, CHINA HOUSING, RIO, ANTO, VALE
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,302 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 1,778 | Vale S.A. Sponsored ADR (VALE:NYS), 0

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CHINA MACRO, CHINA HOUSING, RIO, ANTO, VALE
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,302 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 1,778 | Vale S.A. Sponsored ADR (VALE:NYS), 0
- Published:
16 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Spence Alan AS -
Pages:
18 -
In a nutshell:
. CHINA MACRO: March economic activity beat across the board
. CHINA HOUSING: Activity still in decline but showing signs of improvement
. Results:
. RIO TINTO (+): 1Q25 production first take - slower start in iron ore, copper a positive
. ANTOFAGASTA (-):
. VALE (=): 1Q25 production first take - weak start to the year in iron ore
Daily Prices as of April 15th
/
PRICE MOVERS
. MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: China''s economy showed surprising strength in the first quarter with GDP growing +5.4% y/y amid a sharp uptick in March activities. Industrial production (+7.7% y/y), Retail sales (+5.9% y/y), and FAI (+4.2% y/y) all accelerated and beat expectations. However, the outlook is clouded by the trade war with the US, asking for fresh stimulus. Policymakers could announce more policy support during the upcoming April Politburo meeting. Meanwhile, China housing activities were still contracting despite sign of improvements with sales (-1.6% y/y), completions (-11.7% y/y) and new starts (-18.7% y/y).
Trump has expanded his Section 232 trade probe into the need for tariffs on critical minerals, something signalled to be likely in the prior days. Under law, the Commerce secretary will need to deliver its results within 270 days. The administration itself has acknowledged its import reliance with on at least 15 critical minerals and 70% of its rare earths coming from China.
. Base metals mostly stable this morning on the SHFE; zinc -0.8%, copper -0.2%, aluminium -0.1%, nickel +0.4%. Iron ore futures in Singapore off their lows but still trading -1.3% weaker this morning. Chinese crude steel production increased +4.6% y/y in March as iron ore and coking coal price eased, despite Beijing''s efforts to reduce output levels. Gold (USD 3,296/oz) hits another record high as Trump''s expanding trade investigations has increased the bid for safe haven assets.
. Macro data this week: Eurozone CPI (consensus +2.2% y/y), US Retail Sales (consensus +1.4% m/m)...