2024 guidance so far points to flattish spend y/y though overrepresented by majors Midway through 4Q23 reporting, 2024 EandP budgets point to just 1% growth in upstream oil and gas capex. However, with the majors overrepresented amongst those that have reported so far and among the most capital disciplined, we still expect aggregate upstream spending to trend toward mid-single digits amongst all EandPs. Our tracking of NOCs and Independents shows 2024 budgets up 9% and 6% respectively to date. Partly explaining the lacklustre y/y growth in 2024 has been higher spending in 2023 on MandA and the pulling forward of capex into 4Q23. Customers remain disciplined but open to ''advantaged'' developments From 4Q customer commentary, striking to us is the extent to which upstream development opportunities lie near exclusively offshore in deep water, complemented by short-cycle US shale. Messaging on capital discipline remains firm though operators are willing to develop new supply provided it is ''advantaged''. Cost inflation is receding in areas such as OCTG, though in others such as offshore drilling, operators are experimenting with new ways to contain pricing increases with TTE''s entry into a JV with a rig owner a recent example. US onshore - intent to rebuild DUCs signalled, but gas operators starting to drop rigs In US onshore, spending and growth remains tepid amidst continued capital discipline, efficiency gains from faster drilling and completions crews, MandA, lower gas prices and forecasts for modest global oil inventory builds. Large onshore EandPs including ExxonMobil and Chevron have begun signalling the need to rebuild Drilled Uncompleted Wells inventories, positive for our OCTG coverage. Saudi Aramco - focus and spend toward gas and downstream No longer targeting an increase in oil capacity by 2027 as a transition to gas and renewables frees up c1.4mb/d of oil for export, Saudi Arabia is turning its focus to unconventional gas and crude-to-chemicals...