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22 Apr 2024
Q1 previews: slow start but still upbeat
Saipem (SPM:BIT), 0 | Saipem S.p.A. (SPM:MIL), 0 | Vallourec (VK:EPA), 0 | Vallourec SA (VK:PAR), 0 | CGG (CGG:EPA), 0 | Viridien (VIRI:PAR), 0 | SBM Offshore NV (SBMO:AMS), 0 | TechnipFMC PLC (FTI:NYSE), 0 | TechnipFMC plc (FTI:NYS), 0 | SUBSEA 7 (SUBC:STO), 0 | Subsea 7 S.A. (SUBC:OSL), 0 | Petrofac Limited (PFC:LON), 3.8 | Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT:EPA), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz SA (GTT:PAR), 0 | AKER SOLUTIONS (AKSO:STO), 0 | Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO:OSL), 0 | Technip Energies NV (TE:PAR), 0

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Q1 previews: slow start but still upbeat
Saipem (SPM:BIT), 0 | Saipem S.p.A. (SPM:MIL), 0 | Vallourec (VK:EPA), 0 | Vallourec SA (VK:PAR), 0 | CGG (CGG:EPA), 0 | Viridien (VIRI:PAR), 0 | SBM Offshore NV (SBMO:AMS), 0 | TechnipFMC PLC (FTI:NYSE), 0 | TechnipFMC plc (FTI:NYS), 0 | SUBSEA 7 (SUBC:STO), 0 | Subsea 7 S.A. (SUBC:OSL), 0 | Petrofac Limited (PFC:LON), 3.8 | Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT:EPA), 0 | Gaztransport & Technigaz SA (GTT:PAR), 0 | AKER SOLUTIONS (AKSO:STO), 0 | Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO:OSL), 0 | Technip Energies NV (TE:PAR), 0
- Published:
22 Apr 2024 -
Author:
Thomson Daniel DT -
Pages:
26 -
Previewing Euro Oil Services Q1s - a slow start to the year, but outlook still upbeat
We preview Euro OFS Q1s in this note. After a bullish year-end reporting season the sector is up 19% in the last 3 months. Q1 has been quiet for most on the order front but should improve over the remainder of the year and we''d use any weakness to build positions.
Soggy quarter for orders but 2Q looks better already
Q1 is likely to be the slowest quarter for orders since 3Q22 amongst our offshore coverage, with TechnipFMC (=) the exception. However, ExxonMobil''s $12.7bn Final Investment Decision (FID) on Whiptail in Guyana last week has kickstarted momentum in 2Q with major awards to SBM Offshore (+), Saipem (+) and TechnipFMC. Elsewhere, SURF contracts for the 3 post-FID Buzios projects in Brazil are overdue for award by Petrobras, TotalEnergies is reportedly in the final stages of negotiations with SPM for its Kaminho project offshore Angola and recent comments by TTE suggest a first project in Namibia could be confirmed this year, opening a new offshore basin for development.
US drilling activity stagnant, while international grinds higher
The US rig count remained down c20% in Q1 y/y on continued capital discipline from shale EandPs and with gas-directed rigs still falling. However, April data from the EIA showed drilling activity outpaced completions for the first time since Feb-23 with Permian DUC book-to-bill ratios at record lows. With US OCTG pricing down 8% over Q1, commentary on the outlook for drilling activity is highly relevant for Vallourec (+). Internationally, rig counts continue to grind higher. We''re particularly interested in commentary from OFS companies with onshore Saudi exposure, where development of the Jafurah unconventional gas field could drive higher OCTG intensity in the region.
Potential catch-up quarter for CGG
We think CGG (=) is set for a solid Q1 after slippage in multi-client sales from 4Q and positive read across from peer...