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31 Oct 2023
Q3 23 - no improvement but no further deterioration

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Q3 23 - no improvement but no further deterioration
Imerys (NK:EPA), 0 | Imerys SA (NK:PAR), 0
- Published:
31 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Lahmidi Mourad ML -
Pages:
11 -
Soft Q3 23 trends, similar to Q2
Q3 23 revenues came in at EUR918m down 17.7% including -14% on a LFL basis and coming 4% below consensus due to 1) adverse market conditions in construction end markets (c.40% of group sales); 2) continued destocking at clients although management highlighted that stocks in channels are now very low; 3) increased competition from Asian players benefiting from lower energy costs. Volumes were down 14% YoY (similar decline compared to Q2) while pricing was neutral, reflecting the unwinding of energy costs surcharges. Q3 23 current EBITDA came out at EUR150m down 22% and tracking 6% below consensus due to decrease in volumes, partially offset by reduced fixed and variable costs.
Imerys now guides towards the low end of its guidance range
The group now anticipates 2023 EBITDA to come at the low end of its guidance range of EUR630m-650m, assuming no further macro deterioration as the group is deploying cost saving initiatives. This guidance implies virtually stable EBITDA is Q4 23. This is based on 1) stable volumes as comparison basis becomes less challenging and client destocking has likely come to an end; 2) neutral pricing; 3) continued benefits from lower variable costs.
Estimates and TP revised down - Outperform maintained
We have trimmed our EPS forecasts by 3%/4% in 2023/2024 to factor in the Q3 print. Our TP is taken down from EUR40 to EUR31 mostly to account for lower lithium prices (EUR21 for the core business down from EUR22 and c.EUR10 for future Lithium projects down from EUR18). Trends seem to have bottomed in Q3 while valuation seem to provide good support at 7.6x PE 2024 and c.6% dividend yield. Looking through the next six months, growth investments should start delivering against an easier comparison base. We keep our Outperform rating.