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25 Oct 2024
Retail bookings improving, guidance reaffirmed

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Retail bookings improving, guidance reaffirmed
Nexity (NXI:EPA), 0 | Nexity SA (NXI:PAR), 0
- Published:
25 Oct 2024 -
Author:
Gelebart Laurent LG -
Pages:
10 -
Q3 bookings down 2.5% in volume and up 4.1% in value, due to retail
Retail sales were up 11.5% in Q3 (vs 1.2% in Q2 and +2.2% in Q1). They accounted for c38% of bookings in Q3 and 49% ytd (including private investors). In the framework of its transformation plan, Nexity has been cancelling 1.5k bookings (cEUR300m of sales) by abandoning some property programs (mostly block sales) for which the economics were not satisfactory. Net bookings at the end of 9M, restated for this element, were 6.6k units vs 8.1k gross and 9.2k at the end of 9M23. Finally, the commercial offer at end 9M24 stood at 5.7k units, down 12% yoy.
9M sales down 13%, in line with expectations
Restated for disposals, sales were down 8%. Per activity, residential and non-residential sales were down 7%, with non-residential boosted in Q3 with the delivery of a large project in La Garenne Colombes. As for services, sales relapsed by 11% ytd, largely explained by distribution remaining weak (-36% ytd).
Transformation plan going smoothly, disposal of Bien''ici
Nexity has been disposing of the bulk of its stake in Bien''ici for EUR35m EV. We believe it has been achieved on a very flattering multiple (c30x EV/EBITDA, source: Immo2). The cost-cutting plan is also well advanced, with the redundancy plan validated by unions.
Estimates fine-tuned, valuation rolled over to FY26 (TP up to EUR15.5 from EUR11)
We have fine-tuned estimates for FY25 as well as for FY26 to reflect the disposal of Bien''ici. With improved visibility on the transformation and the retail market performing better (October starting on a positive note), we roll over our valuation (EV/EBIT target multiple) to FY26, a more normative year. That being said, multiple challenges remain (municipal elections, buy-to-let being phased out, social landlords likely lower investments going forward), starting with the biggest of all the battles: access to land potential. Reiterate Neutral rating.