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31 Mar 2025
STRATEGY, LITHIUM, RIO, CHINA PMI, US PLATE, STEEL CHINA
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,412 | SSAB (SSAB-A:STO), 0 | SSAB AB Class B (SSAB.B:OME), 0 | Nucor Corporation (NUE:NYSE), 0 | Nucor Corporation (NUE:NYS), 0

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STRATEGY, LITHIUM, RIO, CHINA PMI, US PLATE, STEEL CHINA
Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,412 | SSAB (SSAB-A:STO), 0 | SSAB AB Class B (SSAB.B:OME), 0 | Nucor Corporation (NUE:NYSE), 0 | Nucor Corporation (NUE:NYS), 0
- Published:
31 Mar 2025 -
Author:
Liu Mavis ML -
Pages:
17 -
In a nutshell:
. STRATEGY: Preparing For Liberation Day
. RIO TINTO (+): Early discussions to develop DRC lithium deposit
. US PLATE: Nucor (+) hikes plate offers by +USD 40/st
. STEEL CHINA: China steel industry''s profitability turns negative in January and February
. GANFENG LITHIUM GROUP (-) / GANFENG LITHIUM GROUP - H (=) Post-2024 result call: focus on cost control and battery business in 2025
. CHINA PMI: March NBS manufacturing PMI (50.5) and non-manufacturing (50.8) beat expectations
Daily Prices as of March 28th
/
PRICE MOVERS
. MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: China factory activities continued to rebound with NBS Manufacturing PMI (50.5) accelerating in March. Non-manufacturing PMI (50.8) also gained momentum as Construction (53.4) activities gained pace in March.
. Base metals weak on the SHFE this morning ahead of ''Liberation Day'' on Wednesday; aluminium -0.3%, copper -0.7%, nickel -1.6%, zinc -1.8%. Spot copper TCRCs made another record low last week with several smelters buyers reportedly in the mid negative USD 20/t range. Iron ore futures declining -0.9% this morning in Singapore. China''s second-largest steelmaker, Angang Steel (NC) posted a nearly USD 1bn annual loss on softening demand. Gold (USD 3,118/oz) crosses the USD 3,100/oz level for the first time in history amid ongoing concerns of a global trade war. Gold is up 18% YTD and has made 15 fresh all-time highs during that time with the rally also being aided by central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty.
. Macro data this week: Eurozone CPI (consensus +2.2% y/y) and US ISM Manufacturing Index (consensus 49.8) tomorrow, US Factory Orders (consensus +0.5% m/m) on Wednesday, US Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus 135k) on Friday.
From our strategy team:
Preparing For Liberation Day
With reciprocal tariffs in focus this week, we lay out our base case plus an adverse scenario. If the base case of an increase in the US effective tariff rate rising to c. 14%, with a 10-12.5% tariff rate...