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08 Aug 2023
The Real (e)State of Paris
Gecina (GFC:EPA), 0 | Gecina SA (GFC:PAR), 0 | Covivio SA (COV:PAR), 0 | Icade (ICAD:EPA), 0 | Icade SA (ICAD:PAR), 0
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The Real (e)State of Paris
Gecina (GFC:EPA), 0 | Gecina SA (GFC:PAR), 0 | Covivio SA (COV:PAR), 0 | Icade (ICAD:EPA), 0 | Icade SA (ICAD:PAR), 0
- Published:
08 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Berson Marc MB -
Pages:
30 -
You say deep, we say dive
As concern rises for some investors surround the future demand for offices going forward, we have got out our metaphorical map of Paris'' office submarkets to impart a deeper understanding of the various different submarket dynamics, where the winning locations are and which stocks are the biggest beneficiaries on a relative basis. The findings are that Gecina should be the leader of the pack - in a notable way medium-term and followed by Covivio and Icade. ''High'' Paris CBD rents don''t scare us - nor do the tighter yields, because we take the view that stronger market rental growth will prevail, supply will remain tighter and vacancy lower.
What''s the new news?
The divergence in occupier demand for prime assets in prime locations, versus secondary (or even nearer-prime) assets in secondary locations is getting wider not narrower in our view. The supply disparity is also notable and we cover off specific markets such as Paris CBD, La Defense, the Northern and Southern Rings and other submarkets when analysing both the occupier and investment markets. Even when assessing the outlook for yields / capital values, we are still more positive on the central locations despite their greater yield convexity.
Preference for Gecina
Based on our market analysis in this report, we have a clear relative preference for Gecina over ''peers'' Icade and Covivio. In our view, the company with 85% of its office portfolio in Paris City, Neuilly or the Southern ring will deliver stronger rental growth and greater asset value resilience going forward. We are not yet calling the trough in Paris office assets values entirely, but we believe that Gecina has the greatest potential to deliver the biggest ERV-offsetting factor against further outward yield shift. For Icade, the partial healthcare portfolio exit hasn''t delivered the share price rerating that we were expecting, and we take the view that this is partially down to the slower than...