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  • 19 Mar 2025

TIME Conference Day 2 - flash feedback


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,412 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,217 | Aurubis AG (NDA:ETR), 0 | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM:TSE), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Spence Alan AS

    • 17 pages


 

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TIME Conference Day 2 - flash feedback


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,412 | Anglo American plc (AAL:LON), 2,217 | Aurubis AG (NDA:ETR), 0 | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM:TSE), 0

  • Published: 19 Mar 2025
  • Author: Spence Alan AS
  • Pages: 17
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? On day 2 of our TIME conference, we hosted Anglo American''s (+) Head of Strategy, Aurubis'' (=) CFO, First Quantum''s (=) CFO, Rio Tinto''s (+) CFO and Teck Resources (NC) CEO. On day 1 we hosted the respective CFO''s from Barrick (=), Norsk Hydro (=) and South32 (-) and you can find feedback here. BNPP Exane View: Anglo American - Achievement of the restructuring pathway remains Anglo''s #1 priority. Valuations for assets exited so far as part of that process have exceeded market expectations. Next up is the demerger of Amplats which remains on track for June. De Beers, and the difficulty in the diamonds market makes that a bit more of a protracted event with it still being a dual track process (IPO vs sale). January was a relatively weak start to 2025 for Collahuasi, exhibited via the Cochilco data, as it worked through lower grades stockpiles. The two adjacency deals they have announced over the last few quarters (Serpentina + Andina) have been well received for unlocking some real value creation. The next logical combination would be something between Collahuasi and QB2 given proximity (5km) and ability to optimise higher grade ore and excess processing capacity. 2027 is the likely deadline for something to be announced, before Anglo would need to submit the EIA for the 4th processing line at Collahuasi. Aurubis - The company has limited exposure to spot TCs as their pricing strategy involves 80% of contracts linked to benchmarks. However, copper TCs is expected to remain lower for longer which will eventually bite into their earnings. Meanwhile, the sulphuric acid market is performing well amid improving downstream demand, which partially offsets the headwinds from TCs. The company is expected to take advantage of being the first mover in the US recycling market which is underserviced with few competitors at the same scale. The company is focused on strategically enlarging their US presence with the Richmond plant ramping up and...

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