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  • 12 Dec 2024

X, CLF, MT, EU SCRAP, STEEL BRAZIL


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,291 | BHP Group Ltd (BHP:LON), 1,830 | ArcelorMittal SA (MT:AMS), 0 | United States Steel Corporation (X:NYSE), 0 | United States Steel Corporation (X:NYS), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF:NYSE), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF:NYS), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Gresser Tristan TG

    • 11 pages


 

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X, CLF, MT, EU SCRAP, STEEL BRAZIL


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 4,291 | BHP Group Ltd (BHP:LON), 1,830 | ArcelorMittal SA (MT:AMS), 0 | United States Steel Corporation (X:NYSE), 0 | United States Steel Corporation (X:NYS), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF:NYSE), 0 | Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF:NYS), 0

  • Published: 12 Dec 2024
  • Author: Gresser Tristan TG
  • Pages: 11
  • BNP Paribas Exane


In a nutshell: . UNITED STATES STEEL (+) - Biden hasn''t changed his mind. Implications of a no-deal scenario . STEEL EU - Moselle River incident to cause some raw material inflation but only limited steel supply disruptions . STEEL BRAZIL - CSN expects 3-4% demand growth in 2025 and imports to recede Daily Prices as of December 11th / PRICE MOVERS . MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: US November CPI show benign prints, clearing the way for a December rate cut. However, Fed officials are increasingly worried about resilient non-shelter inflation amid a strong economy and incoming inflationary policy mix. Base metals trading mostly higher on the SHFE this morning amid stimulus hopes from China; nickel +3.4%, aluminium +0.9%, zinc +0.2%, copper unch. Spot Alumina price unexpectedly dropped -15.6% w/w yesterday amid improvement in supply (Indonesia origin). The guidance withdrawal by S32 (-) at its Mozal aluminium smelter also led to the prospect of reselling its unused alumina into the spot market. SMM reported that some aluminium smelter in Sichuan province has started to cut production (205ktpa) due to high cost. Meanwhile, the dispute between EGA and the Guinean government remains unresolved over the ongoing ban on bauxite exports. Iron ore futures recovered on the DCE (+1.3%) and SGX (+1.4%) from previous sessions'' losses, as investors awaited clues on policy easing from China''s upcoming Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC). Gold (USD 2,715/oz) edged lower on Thursday as investors booked profits after prices hit one-month high on increased expectations of Fed cut. The market now sees a 98.5% change of a 25bp cut on Dec 18, compared with about 86% odds before the US inflation report. . Macro data this week: China credit data due from today with Aggregate financing (cons. 2.9tn yuan); ECB policy rate decision also today (cons. 25bp cut). Eurozone industrial production (cons. -0.1% m/m) on Friday. / . STEEL EU - Moselle River incident to cause...

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