Lyft reported gross bookings of $3.693bn in 1Q24, up 21.1% YoY, but experienced a seasonal decline quarter-on-quarter. Active Riders increased by 11.7% YoY at 21.9mn in 1Q24, although this was a slowdown from 22.4mn in 4Q23. Revenue per active rider was up 14% YoY and 6.7% QoQ. Lyft saw a 22.7% YoY growth in the number of rides. Revenue rose by 27.7% to $1.277bn in 1Q24, a 4.3% increase QoQ. The company demonstrated consistent cost control, with total costs and expenses rising by 10.1% YoY and 4.3% QoQ. The cost of revenue rose by 37.6% YoY, driven by higher ride volumes and increased insurance expenses. R&D and G&A expenses decreased YoY, keeping total expense growth at c.10% YoY. The loss from operations was $63mn in 1Q24, compared to a loss of $217mn in 1Q23. Net loss stood at $31.5mn, which included $80.1mn in stock-based compensation in 1Q24, compared to $187.6mn a year ago, with $180.3mn in stock-based compensation. Adjusted EBITDA reached $59.4mn in 1Q24, down from $66.6mn in 4Q23 but up from $22.7mn in 1Q23. Lyft’s FCF was positive at $127mn in 1Q24. The company focused on improving drivers’ experiences, offering more flexibility including scheduled drives. A median driver earned $31.1 per hour of engaged time, including tips and bonuses, in 1Q24. Drivers’ hours grew by 40% YoY, reaching an all-time high, with continued high engagement levels according to Lyft. Usage of scooters and bikes is expected to increase with improving weather. The company anticipates that summer travel will enhance the airport experience. Lyft remains optimistic about its partnerships, which account for c.50% of rides. The Women+ Connect feature continues to be a significant driver for the categories of women drivers and riders, with activations increased by c.24% YoY. In 1Q24, Lyft Media revenue grew by c.250% YoY with more business coming from repeat customers such as NBCUniversal. As of March 31, 2024, cash, unrestricted cash, and short-term investments totaled $1.7 bn, while debt reached $0.94bn. In February 2024, the company issued c.$400mn in convertible bonds with an interest rate of 0.625% p.a. and sale price for Class A common stock (strike price) set at $21.08 per share, representing c.32.5% conversion premium over the stock price of $15.91 per share at the time of the placement.
We maintain our forecasts and price target unchanged. For 2Q24, the company expects gross bookings of $4.0-4.1bn, up 16-19% YoY, driven by c.15% YoY growth in rides. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to reach $95-100mn and Adj EBITDA margin of 2.4% as percentage of gross bookings. For FY24, total rides growth is expected to remain in the mid-teens YoY, and Adj EBITDA as % of gross bookings is anticipated to be 2.1%, with positive FCF. The company has indicated that at least 70% of Adj EBITDA will convert to free cash flow for FY24. Adj EBITDA will be weighted more towards 1H24, as the company expects insurance expenses to increase in 2H24. This will provide more visibility after the second quarter results are published. We maintain our 12-month DCF-based target price of $18.4/share and uphold our Buy rating for the stock. The company will host its Investor Day on June 6, 2024.

10 May 2024
Lyft 1Q24: healthy YoY results, promising outlook for FCF

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Lyft 1Q24: healthy YoY results, promising outlook for FCF
- Published:
10 May 2024 -
Author:
Marina Alekseenkova -
Pages:
6 -
Lyft reported gross bookings of $3.693bn in 1Q24, up 21.1% YoY, but experienced a seasonal decline quarter-on-quarter. Active Riders increased by 11.7% YoY at 21.9mn in 1Q24, although this was a slowdown from 22.4mn in 4Q23. Revenue per active rider was up 14% YoY and 6.7% QoQ. Lyft saw a 22.7% YoY growth in the number of rides. Revenue rose by 27.7% to $1.277bn in 1Q24, a 4.3% increase QoQ. The company demonstrated consistent cost control, with total costs and expenses rising by 10.1% YoY and 4.3% QoQ. The cost of revenue rose by 37.6% YoY, driven by higher ride volumes and increased insurance expenses. R&D and G&A expenses decreased YoY, keeping total expense growth at c.10% YoY. The loss from operations was $63mn in 1Q24, compared to a loss of $217mn in 1Q23. Net loss stood at $31.5mn, which included $80.1mn in stock-based compensation in 1Q24, compared to $187.6mn a year ago, with $180.3mn in stock-based compensation. Adjusted EBITDA reached $59.4mn in 1Q24, down from $66.6mn in 4Q23 but up from $22.7mn in 1Q23. Lyft’s FCF was positive at $127mn in 1Q24. The company focused on improving drivers’ experiences, offering more flexibility including scheduled drives. A median driver earned $31.1 per hour of engaged time, including tips and bonuses, in 1Q24. Drivers’ hours grew by 40% YoY, reaching an all-time high, with continued high engagement levels according to Lyft. Usage of scooters and bikes is expected to increase with improving weather. The company anticipates that summer travel will enhance the airport experience. Lyft remains optimistic about its partnerships, which account for c.50% of rides. The Women+ Connect feature continues to be a significant driver for the categories of women drivers and riders, with activations increased by c.24% YoY. In 1Q24, Lyft Media revenue grew by c.250% YoY with more business coming from repeat customers such as NBCUniversal. As of March 31, 2024, cash, unrestricted cash, and short-term investments totaled $1.7 bn, while debt reached $0.94bn. In February 2024, the company issued c.$400mn in convertible bonds with an interest rate of 0.625% p.a. and sale price for Class A common stock (strike price) set at $21.08 per share, representing c.32.5% conversion premium over the stock price of $15.91 per share at the time of the placement.
We maintain our forecasts and price target unchanged. For 2Q24, the company expects gross bookings of $4.0-4.1bn, up 16-19% YoY, driven by c.15% YoY growth in rides. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to reach $95-100mn and Adj EBITDA margin of 2.4% as percentage of gross bookings. For FY24, total rides growth is expected to remain in the mid-teens YoY, and Adj EBITDA as % of gross bookings is anticipated to be 2.1%, with positive FCF. The company has indicated that at least 70% of Adj EBITDA will convert to free cash flow for FY24. Adj EBITDA will be weighted more towards 1H24, as the company expects insurance expenses to increase in 2H24. This will provide more visibility after the second quarter results are published. We maintain our 12-month DCF-based target price of $18.4/share and uphold our Buy rating for the stock. The company will host its Investor Day on June 6, 2024.