Lyft reported strong quarterly results, showcasing an 8.9% increase in Active Riders reaching a record 24.4 mn, and a 31.5% YoY revenue growth to $1,523mn in 3Q24. The platform facilitated 217mn rides, a 15.6% YoY increase, while Gross Bookings rose to $4,108mn, up 15.6% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $107.3mn, surpassing the company’s guidance of $90-95mn. Lyft achieved a 20.8% growth in revenue per active rider, making a 3% QoQ improvement. Total costs rose in line with revenue, increasing 31.9% YoY, slightly accelerating in 3Q compared to 2Q24. The growth in operating expenses was primarily driven by Sales and Marketing costs, which increased 66.1% YoY to $216mn (accounting for 14% of total operating expenses), and a 37.8% YoY rise in cost of revenue to $888mn (56% of total costs). Lyft reported a $56.7mn loss from operations and a $12.4mn net loss, compared to $40.1mn and $12.1mn, respectively, in the prior year. Lyft highlighted positive outcomes from its third-party insurance renewal. As a result, the 4Q cost of revenue is expected to increase by only $15mn QoQ, a lower impact than in previous years. Lyft enhanced its platform to improve the driver experience. Drivers now receive increased earnings for rides taking 5 minutes longer than estimated, as well as compensation for dropping off riders that leave them far from their way without a return trip. According to driver surveys cited by Lyft, driver preference for Lyft is 12% higher than for its main competitor. Lyft’s vision for profitable growth includes building partnerships. A notable development in 3Q24 was a strategic agreement with DoorDash, which provides benefits to riders who link their DashPass accounts. Lyft reaffirmed its commitment to dilution management, targeting approximately $340mn in stock-based compensation for FY24. While the number of shares increased by 5.9% YoY and 1.4% QoQ, stock-based compensation expenses decreased 9.9% YoY to $88.8mn.
Lyft announced new partnerships to integrate autonomous vehicles (AVs) into its platform, aiming to expand its total addressable market (TAM). Riders will be able to use AVs in Atlanta starting in 2025. Lyft partners with Mobileye, May Mobility, and Nexar to facilitate the integration. Lyft's in-house capabilities in fleet maintenance and management are expected to support the adoption of a hybrid model that combines traditional and autonomous vehicles. This strategic move positions Lyft to capitalize on the growing AV sector and enhance its service offerings.
In 4Q24, Lyft anticipates Gross Bookings between $4.28bn and $4.35bn, up 15-17% YoY, and expects Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $100-105mn. The outlook factors in the recently announced partnership with DoorDash. For FY24, Lyft maintains its guidance for total ride growth in the mid-teens YoY, and Adj EBITDA as a percentage of gross bookings at 2.3%, an upward revision from the previously expected 2.1%. The company also projects positive FCF exceeding $650mn. Based on the company’s guidance, Gross Bookings could surpass $16.1bn, while Adj EBITDA may reach $370mn. The increase in FCF is attributable to insurance accruals and lower cash expenditures. Once Lyft demonstrates that its FCF and Adj EBITDA figures are sustainable, we believe there will be more upside for the stock. We have adjusted our forecasts. Lyft has shown strong control over operating expenses, particularly insurance-related costs, and continues to reduce its stock-based compensation. We have revised our 12-month DCF-based target price to $20.6 from $14.9 per share and maintain our Buy rating for the stock.

26 Nov 2024
Lyft 3Q24: Elevating Adj EBITDA and FCF Expectations

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Lyft 3Q24: Elevating Adj EBITDA and FCF Expectations
- Published:
26 Nov 2024 -
Author:
Marina Alekseenkova -
Pages:
6 -
Lyft reported strong quarterly results, showcasing an 8.9% increase in Active Riders reaching a record 24.4 mn, and a 31.5% YoY revenue growth to $1,523mn in 3Q24. The platform facilitated 217mn rides, a 15.6% YoY increase, while Gross Bookings rose to $4,108mn, up 15.6% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $107.3mn, surpassing the company’s guidance of $90-95mn. Lyft achieved a 20.8% growth in revenue per active rider, making a 3% QoQ improvement. Total costs rose in line with revenue, increasing 31.9% YoY, slightly accelerating in 3Q compared to 2Q24. The growth in operating expenses was primarily driven by Sales and Marketing costs, which increased 66.1% YoY to $216mn (accounting for 14% of total operating expenses), and a 37.8% YoY rise in cost of revenue to $888mn (56% of total costs). Lyft reported a $56.7mn loss from operations and a $12.4mn net loss, compared to $40.1mn and $12.1mn, respectively, in the prior year. Lyft highlighted positive outcomes from its third-party insurance renewal. As a result, the 4Q cost of revenue is expected to increase by only $15mn QoQ, a lower impact than in previous years. Lyft enhanced its platform to improve the driver experience. Drivers now receive increased earnings for rides taking 5 minutes longer than estimated, as well as compensation for dropping off riders that leave them far from their way without a return trip. According to driver surveys cited by Lyft, driver preference for Lyft is 12% higher than for its main competitor. Lyft’s vision for profitable growth includes building partnerships. A notable development in 3Q24 was a strategic agreement with DoorDash, which provides benefits to riders who link their DashPass accounts. Lyft reaffirmed its commitment to dilution management, targeting approximately $340mn in stock-based compensation for FY24. While the number of shares increased by 5.9% YoY and 1.4% QoQ, stock-based compensation expenses decreased 9.9% YoY to $88.8mn.
Lyft announced new partnerships to integrate autonomous vehicles (AVs) into its platform, aiming to expand its total addressable market (TAM). Riders will be able to use AVs in Atlanta starting in 2025. Lyft partners with Mobileye, May Mobility, and Nexar to facilitate the integration. Lyft's in-house capabilities in fleet maintenance and management are expected to support the adoption of a hybrid model that combines traditional and autonomous vehicles. This strategic move positions Lyft to capitalize on the growing AV sector and enhance its service offerings.
In 4Q24, Lyft anticipates Gross Bookings between $4.28bn and $4.35bn, up 15-17% YoY, and expects Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $100-105mn. The outlook factors in the recently announced partnership with DoorDash. For FY24, Lyft maintains its guidance for total ride growth in the mid-teens YoY, and Adj EBITDA as a percentage of gross bookings at 2.3%, an upward revision from the previously expected 2.1%. The company also projects positive FCF exceeding $650mn. Based on the company’s guidance, Gross Bookings could surpass $16.1bn, while Adj EBITDA may reach $370mn. The increase in FCF is attributable to insurance accruals and lower cash expenditures. Once Lyft demonstrates that its FCF and Adj EBITDA figures are sustainable, we believe there will be more upside for the stock. We have adjusted our forecasts. Lyft has shown strong control over operating expenses, particularly insurance-related costs, and continues to reduce its stock-based compensation. We have revised our 12-month DCF-based target price to $20.6 from $14.9 per share and maintain our Buy rating for the stock.