 In 3Q23, Nutrien reports revenue of $5,631mn, down 31% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA of $1,084mn, down 56% YoY as fertilizer prices return to their 6-year averages. On the positive side, Nutrien reports crop nutrients gross margin improvement in the Retail segment, higher volumes of crop nutrients sales, and high historical potash sales volumes with lower potash cash cost in 2Q. Retail sales were down 12% YoY to $3,490mn in 3Q23, generating $895mn (-2% YoY) gross margin and $197mn (-16% YoY) Adj EBITDA. The decline was due to crop nutrient selling price correction of 28% YoY to $625/t in 3Q23 compared to $869/t in 3Q22 and to $533/t average for 1Q17-3Q23. Crop nutrient sales reached 1.998mt in 3Q23, up 8% YoY generating $131/t gross margin (vs $117/t a year ago). Seed sales and gross margin were higher in 3Q due to higher cotton sales in the US and the benefits of acquisition in Brazil, according to Nutrien. The potash net sales reached $972mn, down 51% YoY in 3Q23 due to a decline in offshore sales volumes by 13% YoY and a 61% YoY average potash price reduction to $250/t (vs $285/t 6-year average). Nutrien sold a record volume of 3.9mt of potash in 3Q23, up 23% YoY. The company reported a $56/t controllable cash cost of potash manufactured compared to $70/t a year ago. Adj EBITDA reached $611mn in 3Q23, down 56% YoY. Canpotex, the exporter for Nutrien, reported 49% of volumes sold in Latin America in 3Q23, 28% in other Asian markets, 10% in China (vs 15% of volumes sold in China in 3Q22), 3% in India, and 10% in other markets. The nitrogen net sales were down 59% YoY to $723mn in 3Q23. Ammonia sales fell 76% YoY to $156mn due to a 19% drop in volumes, urea down 31% YoY to $272mn despite a 6% growth in volumes sold, while an 11% drop in volumes of solutions and nitrates resulted in a revenue decline of 50% YoY to $231mn in 3Q. Ammonia price demonstrated a significant drop of 71% YoY to $272/t driven by lower gas prices (2.95 $/MMBtu in 3Q23 vs 8.24 $/MMBtu in 3Q22), while urea price was down 34% YoY to $396/t. The nitrogen EBITDA was $294mn in 3Q, down 66% YoY. The phosphate segment net sales reached $382mn, down 33% YoY, on the back of a 35% average phosphate price drop to $575/t while volumes were 4% higher YoY in 3Q23, generating Adjusted EBITDA of $90mn (-37% YoY). Gross margin in the segment was $160/t compared to $266/t a year ago. In 3Q, Nutrien’s finance costs increased 51% YoY to $206mn and net earnings reached $82mn, down 95% YoY. The net debt of the company was $13.2bn as of the end of September 2023 from $11.7bn as of June this year due to a short-term debt increase.  Nutrien narrowed its FY2023 guidance from $3.85-5.60 to $4.15-5.00 per share for Adj EPS and from $5.5-6.7bn to $5.8-6.4bn for Adj EBITDA. The company expects retail adj EBITDA at $1.45-1.50bn (from $1.45-1.60bn), potash adj EBITDA at $2.3-2.5bn (from $2.0-2.5bn), nitrogen adj EBITDA at $1.9-2.1bn (down from $1.8-2.3bn), and phosphate adj EBITDA at $450-550mn (from $500-600mn). Nutrien plans to sell 12.8-13.2mt of potash (from 12.6-13.2mt) and 10.5-10.7mt (from 10.8-11.2mt) of nitrogen fertilisers.  We adjusted our forecasts. The fertilizer demand remains robust, according to fertilizer producers, while the fertilizer supply is still restricted from CIS (nitrogen, potash, phosphates) and limited from China (phosphates). Fertiliser prices came close to 6-year averages or below and leave only a limited downside, in our view. Food inflation will likely be supportive of soft commodities and fertilizer demand, and beneficial for Nutrin’s retail business. The current stock price reflects the flat volume and price scenario, according to our model, while the company sees mid-cycle growth drivers, including 2mt of sales volume growth potential in potash, and 1.4mt in nitrogen. We adjusted our price and volume forecasts, mostly for the nitrogen business. Our model assumes 1-3% p.a. fertilizer price growth for 2024-27 and 1% terminal growth rate. We updated our DCF-based 12-month price target to US$66.1 from US$69.2 and changed our rating from Hold to Buy.