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  • 27 Nov 2023

Wise 6M24: appreciating evangelical customers


Wisetech Global Ltd. (WTC:ASX), 0 | Wiseway Group Ltd. (WWG:ASX), 0 | Wise PLC Class A (WISE:LON), 1,016 | Wise Group (WISE:STO), 0 | WISeKey International Holding Ltd. Class B (WIHN:SWX), 0 | Wisesoft Co. Ltd. Class A (002253:SHE), 0 | Wisec Global Limited (511642:BOM), 0 | Wise Group AB (WISE:OME), 0 | WISEiTech Co., Ltd. (065370:KRX), 0 | Wise birds Inc. (273060:KRX), 0 | Wise Ally International Holdings Limited (9918:HKG), 0 | WISE FINANCE Spolka Akcyjna (IBS:WAR), 0 | Wisechip Semiconductor Inc. (5245:ROCO), 0 | Wiselink Co Ltd. (8932:ROCO), 0 | Wise Living Technology Co., Ltd Class H (2481:HKG), 0 | ChinaAMC MSCI China A 50 Connect ETF HKD counter (2839:HKG), 0

  • Hypothesis Research
    • Marina Alekseenkova

    • 7 pages


 

 Wise’s customer base went up by 32% YoY to 7.2mn of active customers in 6M ended 30 September 2023 (1H24), with over 67% of new customers joining through word-of-mouth. The revenue growth reached 25% YoY and adj EBITDA was up 163% YoY for the period. Wise reports £57.4bn in volumes, up 12% YoY in 1H24. Over the last 6M, Wise launched new products in Europe; launched a service for expats in China to send money home; removed charges for holding balances in Australia (Wise is the only non-banking institution included in the Australian New Payments Platform now); and launched a service to send up to $10k money to businesses in Brazil. Wise benefits from a direct connection into 5 payment systems, partnerships with over 70 banking partners, and recently with Swift. Wise operates with 69 licences across 45 countries. The marketing spending of the company increased by 5% YoY to £19.3mn in 1H24, which resulted in more active customer acquisition in Asia and Brazil. The Cross Border revenue reached £34.4mn, up 20% YoY, and other revenue was £113.8mn, up 48% YoY. The Cross Border take rate was 0.67% compared to 0.62% a year ago, while the Other take rate was 0.2% in 1H24. Customer balances grew from £9.2mn as of the end of 1H23 to £12.3bn as of the end of 1H24 (30 September 2023), up 33% YoY. Interest income on customer balances was £157.8mn (net) in 1H24, up from £18.7mn a year ago. The total Income was reported at £656mn in 1H24 compared to £416mn or up 58% YoY. The Income take rate reached 1.14% in 1H24 vs. 0.81% in 1H23. Wise gross profit increased by 86% YoY to £488.9mn with a gross margin of 75% driven by the higher interest rate earned on the growing customer balances. The company’s cost of sales and net credit losses on financial assets increased by 9% YoY, driven by a 12% increase in cross-border volumes. Adj EBITDA reached £241mn in 1H24 compared to £91.6mn a year ago with Adj EBITDA margin improving to 37% from 22%. Wise reports higher administrative expenses at £396.5mn, up 38% YoY and 46% YoY growth in employee costs in 1H24, mostly due to higher headcount. Wise essentially improved its infrastructure and enforced its operations to support its business development for the cross-border payments market.  Sustainable market and one-off gains were both beneficial for Wise. The market for cross-border payments stays strong on the back of geopolitical conflicts and post-COVID workforce movements. Wise has a 5% personal market share and 20% Adj EBITDA margin.  We review our estimates for Wise. The high interest rates environment provided the company with additional earnings to invest in technology and people. We assume a gradual decline of the interest rates and a flat volume per customer, pushing down Wise’s Adj EBITDA margin. Meanwhile, Wise’s ability to support a profitable growth model will likely result in Adj EBITDA margin stabilizing above 25%. Wise’s infrastructure is growing rapidly and is already hard to replicate. We increased our DCF-based 12-month target price to GBp878 from GBp744. We maintain a Buy rating.

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Wise 6M24: appreciating evangelical customers


Wisetech Global Ltd. (WTC:ASX), 0 | Wiseway Group Ltd. (WWG:ASX), 0 | Wise PLC Class A (WISE:LON), 1,016 | Wise Group (WISE:STO), 0 | WISeKey International Holding Ltd. Class B (WIHN:SWX), 0 | Wisesoft Co. Ltd. Class A (002253:SHE), 0 | Wisec Global Limited (511642:BOM), 0 | Wise Group AB (WISE:OME), 0 | WISEiTech Co., Ltd. (065370:KRX), 0 | Wise birds Inc. (273060:KRX), 0 | Wise Ally International Holdings Limited (9918:HKG), 0 | WISE FINANCE Spolka Akcyjna (IBS:WAR), 0 | Wisechip Semiconductor Inc. (5245:ROCO), 0 | Wiselink Co Ltd. (8932:ROCO), 0 | Wise Living Technology Co., Ltd Class H (2481:HKG), 0 | ChinaAMC MSCI China A 50 Connect ETF HKD counter (2839:HKG), 0

  • Published: 27 Nov 2023
  • Author: Marina Alekseenkova
  • Pages: 7
  • Hypothesis Research


 Wise’s customer base went up by 32% YoY to 7.2mn of active customers in 6M ended 30 September 2023 (1H24), with over 67% of new customers joining through word-of-mouth. The revenue growth reached 25% YoY and adj EBITDA was up 163% YoY for the period. Wise reports £57.4bn in volumes, up 12% YoY in 1H24. Over the last 6M, Wise launched new products in Europe; launched a service for expats in China to send money home; removed charges for holding balances in Australia (Wise is the only non-banking institution included in the Australian New Payments Platform now); and launched a service to send up to $10k money to businesses in Brazil. Wise benefits from a direct connection into 5 payment systems, partnerships with over 70 banking partners, and recently with Swift. Wise operates with 69 licences across 45 countries. The marketing spending of the company increased by 5% YoY to £19.3mn in 1H24, which resulted in more active customer acquisition in Asia and Brazil. The Cross Border revenue reached £34.4mn, up 20% YoY, and other revenue was £113.8mn, up 48% YoY. The Cross Border take rate was 0.67% compared to 0.62% a year ago, while the Other take rate was 0.2% in 1H24. Customer balances grew from £9.2mn as of the end of 1H23 to £12.3bn as of the end of 1H24 (30 September 2023), up 33% YoY. Interest income on customer balances was £157.8mn (net) in 1H24, up from £18.7mn a year ago. The total Income was reported at £656mn in 1H24 compared to £416mn or up 58% YoY. The Income take rate reached 1.14% in 1H24 vs. 0.81% in 1H23. Wise gross profit increased by 86% YoY to £488.9mn with a gross margin of 75% driven by the higher interest rate earned on the growing customer balances. The company’s cost of sales and net credit losses on financial assets increased by 9% YoY, driven by a 12% increase in cross-border volumes. Adj EBITDA reached £241mn in 1H24 compared to £91.6mn a year ago with Adj EBITDA margin improving to 37% from 22%. Wise reports higher administrative expenses at £396.5mn, up 38% YoY and 46% YoY growth in employee costs in 1H24, mostly due to higher headcount. Wise essentially improved its infrastructure and enforced its operations to support its business development for the cross-border payments market.  Sustainable market and one-off gains were both beneficial for Wise. The market for cross-border payments stays strong on the back of geopolitical conflicts and post-COVID workforce movements. Wise has a 5% personal market share and 20% Adj EBITDA margin.  We review our estimates for Wise. The high interest rates environment provided the company with additional earnings to invest in technology and people. We assume a gradual decline of the interest rates and a flat volume per customer, pushing down Wise’s Adj EBITDA margin. Meanwhile, Wise’s ability to support a profitable growth model will likely result in Adj EBITDA margin stabilizing above 25%. Wise’s infrastructure is growing rapidly and is already hard to replicate. We increased our DCF-based 12-month target price to GBp878 from GBp744. We maintain a Buy rating.

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Companies: WTC WWG WISE 002253 WIHN WIST WISE 065370 273060 9918 IBS WISE 5245 8932 2481

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