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  • 08 Feb 2024

Wise Company Update


Wisetech Global Ltd. (WTC:ASX), 0 | Wiseway Group Ltd. (WWG:ASX), 0 | Wise PLC Class A (WISE:LON), 1,071 | Wise Group (WISE:STO), 0 | WISeKey International Holding Ltd. Class B (WIHN:SWX), 0 | Wisesoft Co. Ltd. Class A (002253:SHE), 0 | Wisec Global Limited (511642:BOM), 0 | Wise Group AB (WISE:OME), 0 | WISEiTech Co., Ltd. (065370:KRX), 0 | Wise birds Inc. (273060:KRX), 0 | Wise Ally International Holdings Limited (9918:HKG), 0 | WISE FINANCE Spolka Akcyjna (IBS:WAR), 0 | Wisechip Semiconductor Inc. (5245:ROCO), 0 | Wiselink Co Ltd. (8932:ROCO), 0 | Wise Living Technology Co., Ltd Class H (2481:HKG), 0

  • Hypothesis Research
    • Marina Alekseenkova

    • 6 pages


 

 Wise experiences a noteworthy growth in active customers, with a 30% YoY increase to 7.5mn, consistent with our projections, in the quarter ended 31 December 2023 (9M24). Active personal customers surged by 30%YoY to 7.1mn, while business customers saw a 23% YoY growth to 392k. The robust financial performance of Wise was largely driven by the rising adoption of multi-feature usage by both personal and business customers. Approximately 46% of personal customers and 60% of business customers now utilize multi-feature offerings, which include cross-border transfers and cards. This diversification strategy fueled a 23% YoY increase in revenue, reaching £276.6mn. Despite a marginal 1% QoQ decline in Personal Volume per Customer (VPC) and an 11% YoY decrease, attributed to a slower growth in higher volume transfers compared to smaller ones, Wise’s Business VPC saw a 9% YoY decrease but improved by 6.5% from the last quarter. Cross-border volume reached £30.6bn in 3Q24, up 16% YoY, with the influx of newly acquired customers contributing to this growth in transfer volume. Wise reported a strong 40% growth in Income, totaling £375.1mn in 3Q23, driven primarily by increased customer balances and higher interest income on customer balances. Interest income, net of customer benefits, surged by an impressive 126% YoY and 14% QoQ to £98.5mn in 3Q24, attributed to increased interest rates in major currencies and the expanded offering of Wise Interest Asset across various regions. The company’s account balances grew by 28% YoY to £12.9bn in 3Q24, with a gross yield on balances reaching 4.2% compared to 3.8% in 3Q23. Despite returning 1.1% on balances or £33.7mn to customers, up from 1% return in 2Q24, Wise remains restricted in reimbursing customers due to its non-banking institution status in some regions. The growing adoption of multi-feature services is anticipated to contribute to improved margins. Wise continues to leverage its platform efficiently, with over 67% of new customers joining through word-of-mouth referrals. The average customer price in 3Q24 stood at 0.67% compared to 0.66% a year ago, with instant transfers accounting for 61% of transactions, up from 52% last year. Wise’s revenue take-rate improved to 0.9% in 3Q24 from 0.85% a year ago. Overall, results reflect an impressive 30% customer base growth together with high interest rates contributing to a 40% increase in income.  Wise has upgraded its FY24 Income growth to 42-44% YoY compared to the previous guidance of 33-38%. The market of cross-border payments continues to favor the company’s performance. According to the World Bank’s Remittances Prices Worldwide Database, remittance costs remain at 6.2% on average to send $200 as of 2Q23 with banks remaining the costliest channel for sending remittances with average cost of 12.1%, followed by post offices (7%), money transfer operators (5.3%) and mobile operators (4.1%). Wise’s competitive offering is poised to further drive customer base growth.  We review our estimates for Wise. Favorable macro environment with high interest rates and global political turbulence supported the remittances market. Wise is well positioned to achieve strong financial results in FY24. We estimate FY24 (end of March’24) revenue to reach £1,070mn, with Income anticipated at £1,349mn and Adj EBITDA estimated at £460mn. Depending on the pace of the interest rate reduction by central banks, Wise may experience a negative effect from net interest income decrease in 2024-25. We anticipate the interest rate reduction cycle to span at least 3 years, with rates not expected to drop below 2%. Wise has consistently demonstrated a strong ability to deliver profitable growth, enabling the sustainable level of EBITDA margin above 25%. We increased our DCF-based 12-month target price to GBp1,070 from GBp878. We maintain our Buy rating.

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Wise Company Update


Wisetech Global Ltd. (WTC:ASX), 0 | Wiseway Group Ltd. (WWG:ASX), 0 | Wise PLC Class A (WISE:LON), 1,071 | Wise Group (WISE:STO), 0 | WISeKey International Holding Ltd. Class B (WIHN:SWX), 0 | Wisesoft Co. Ltd. Class A (002253:SHE), 0 | Wisec Global Limited (511642:BOM), 0 | Wise Group AB (WISE:OME), 0 | WISEiTech Co., Ltd. (065370:KRX), 0 | Wise birds Inc. (273060:KRX), 0 | Wise Ally International Holdings Limited (9918:HKG), 0 | WISE FINANCE Spolka Akcyjna (IBS:WAR), 0 | Wisechip Semiconductor Inc. (5245:ROCO), 0 | Wiselink Co Ltd. (8932:ROCO), 0 | Wise Living Technology Co., Ltd Class H (2481:HKG), 0

  • Published: 08 Feb 2024
  • Author: Marina Alekseenkova
  • Pages: 6
  • Hypothesis Research


 Wise experiences a noteworthy growth in active customers, with a 30% YoY increase to 7.5mn, consistent with our projections, in the quarter ended 31 December 2023 (9M24). Active personal customers surged by 30%YoY to 7.1mn, while business customers saw a 23% YoY growth to 392k. The robust financial performance of Wise was largely driven by the rising adoption of multi-feature usage by both personal and business customers. Approximately 46% of personal customers and 60% of business customers now utilize multi-feature offerings, which include cross-border transfers and cards. This diversification strategy fueled a 23% YoY increase in revenue, reaching £276.6mn. Despite a marginal 1% QoQ decline in Personal Volume per Customer (VPC) and an 11% YoY decrease, attributed to a slower growth in higher volume transfers compared to smaller ones, Wise’s Business VPC saw a 9% YoY decrease but improved by 6.5% from the last quarter. Cross-border volume reached £30.6bn in 3Q24, up 16% YoY, with the influx of newly acquired customers contributing to this growth in transfer volume. Wise reported a strong 40% growth in Income, totaling £375.1mn in 3Q23, driven primarily by increased customer balances and higher interest income on customer balances. Interest income, net of customer benefits, surged by an impressive 126% YoY and 14% QoQ to £98.5mn in 3Q24, attributed to increased interest rates in major currencies and the expanded offering of Wise Interest Asset across various regions. The company’s account balances grew by 28% YoY to £12.9bn in 3Q24, with a gross yield on balances reaching 4.2% compared to 3.8% in 3Q23. Despite returning 1.1% on balances or £33.7mn to customers, up from 1% return in 2Q24, Wise remains restricted in reimbursing customers due to its non-banking institution status in some regions. The growing adoption of multi-feature services is anticipated to contribute to improved margins. Wise continues to leverage its platform efficiently, with over 67% of new customers joining through word-of-mouth referrals. The average customer price in 3Q24 stood at 0.67% compared to 0.66% a year ago, with instant transfers accounting for 61% of transactions, up from 52% last year. Wise’s revenue take-rate improved to 0.9% in 3Q24 from 0.85% a year ago. Overall, results reflect an impressive 30% customer base growth together with high interest rates contributing to a 40% increase in income.  Wise has upgraded its FY24 Income growth to 42-44% YoY compared to the previous guidance of 33-38%. The market of cross-border payments continues to favor the company’s performance. According to the World Bank’s Remittances Prices Worldwide Database, remittance costs remain at 6.2% on average to send $200 as of 2Q23 with banks remaining the costliest channel for sending remittances with average cost of 12.1%, followed by post offices (7%), money transfer operators (5.3%) and mobile operators (4.1%). Wise’s competitive offering is poised to further drive customer base growth.  We review our estimates for Wise. Favorable macro environment with high interest rates and global political turbulence supported the remittances market. Wise is well positioned to achieve strong financial results in FY24. We estimate FY24 (end of March’24) revenue to reach £1,070mn, with Income anticipated at £1,349mn and Adj EBITDA estimated at £460mn. Depending on the pace of the interest rate reduction by central banks, Wise may experience a negative effect from net interest income decrease in 2024-25. We anticipate the interest rate reduction cycle to span at least 3 years, with rates not expected to drop below 2%. Wise has consistently demonstrated a strong ability to deliver profitable growth, enabling the sustainable level of EBITDA margin above 25%. We increased our DCF-based 12-month target price to GBp1,070 from GBp878. We maintain our Buy rating.

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