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26 Apr 2021
Centaur Media : Metamorphosis - Buy
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON), 500 | Centaur Media plc (CAU:LON), 34.5 | Informa Plc (INF:LON), 891 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,480

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Centaur Media : Metamorphosis - Buy
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON), 500 | Centaur Media plc (CAU:LON), 34.5 | Informa Plc (INF:LON), 891 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,480
- Published:
26 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
25 -
Looking to the future, not the past: Centaur is now an international provider of valuable business information, intelligence, data and services into just two sectors – the marketing industry (via its Xeim division, c.80% of revenues) and the legal industry (via its ‘The Lawyer’ division, c.20% of revenues) – relative to seven different sectors just four years ago. Centaur enables its professional customers to achieve better corporate outcomes, and then can benefit from the value created. The ‘build once, sell many’ nature of its business models should also generate strong operating leverage and cash generation.
Mapping out the road to 2023: On the back of this transformation, management have set out their ‘MAP23’ program, targeting FY23 revenue of over £45m and EBITDA margins of 23%. As a starting point, the impact of 2019 cost savings measures de-risks this target. The key ‘Flagship 4’ brands (Mini MBA, Econsultancy, Influencer Intelligence & The Lawyer) should drive the majority of the expected revenue growth, helped by recent investment in marketing and product development. Both divisions are targeting a growing share of their client budgets, but, shorter-term, green shoots of an improving cyclical backdrop in marketing / legal services are also being seen. A new pricing initiative provides both support & upside risk to existing forecasts.
The path to £100m: With a clear strategy and a structurally robust product offering in place, focus should shift to the appropriate valuation for the growth potential (we forecast 12-13% organic growth over FY21-23E, allowing the MAP23 targets to be reached). Centaur trades at a CY23E EV/EBITDA of just 5x, whilst offering a c.10% FCF yield / 3%+ dividend yield. Meeting the MAP23 targets would ensure the growth potential its transformation has unlocked is better appreciated by investors, and a valuation in-line with larger peers could bring the market cap past the £100m barrier (c.£60m today).