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17 Dec 2019
Close Brothers Group : Priced for perfection? DOWNGRADE TO SELL - Sell

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Close Brothers Group : Priced for perfection? DOWNGRADE TO SELL - Sell
- Published:
17 Dec 2019 -
Author:
Ian Gordon -
Pages:
8 -
After a tricky year, with challenging conditions for the Securities and Asset Management businesses, and ongoing NIM pressure in the Banking division, the shares have re-rated to 2.1x FY19 tNAV (Fig 1, page 2). This is in the context of an ongoing decline in Return on Tangible Equity to 17.6% in FY19, and we forecast 16.4%/15.4%/14.6% through FY20/21/22e (Fig 2, page 2).
The Banking Division remains dominant, contributing 86% of group underlying profit before tax (ex-central items) in FY19 (Fig 3, page 3). However, loan growth slowed to 5.7% ex-IFRS 9 in FY19) and to just 0.9% in Q1 FY20. Pressure on the Net Interest Margin has continued, falling to 7.9% in FY19, contributing to negative “jaws” of -2.2% in FY19 (Fig 4, page 3). Impairments “increased modestly” in Q1 FY20, albeit from low levels.
Earnings per share fell 0.3% YoY in FY19, and we forecast growth of only 0.5%/1.4%/1.4% through FY20/21/22e (Fig 5, page 4). We do not envisage any material reduction in competition in Close Brothers’ chosen markets and, as such, we anticipate little prospect for any material re-acceleration of loan growth or NIM expansion in the coming years. With slower growth, we do anticipate the CET1 capital ratio expanding from 13.0% in FY19 to 13.3%/13.4%/13.5% through FY20/21/22e and, as such, we think it is perfectly reasonable to anticipate the continuation of Close’ progressive dividend policy. Our forecasts equate to a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%/4.3%/4.5% through FY20/21/22e.
We note that outgoing CEO Preben Prebensen sold 150,000 shares @ 1443p per share on 22 Nov. The shares have since appreciated by a further 15%.
We raise our target price to 1420p (from 1415p), but downgrade our recommendation to Sell (from Hold). We prefer OneSavings Bank (Buy).