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18 Feb 2021
Coca-Cola Hellenic : Refreshingly robust - Buy

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Coca-Cola Hellenic : Refreshingly robust - Buy
AB INBEV (ABI:EBR), 0 | Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ABI:BRU), 0 | Coca-Cola HBC AG (CCH:LON), 3,901 | Reckitt Benckiser (Bangladesh) PLC (RECKITTBEN:DHA), 0 | Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (RKT:LON), 4,948
- Published:
18 Feb 2021 -
Author:
Alicia Forry, CFA -
Pages:
6 -
Sparkling volumes accelerated in H2 to +4.7% (-4.5% in H1), as the consumer increasingly turned to trusted brands. A key driver of growth in the current environment is multi-packs of single-serve formats in the off-trade channel; these grew 5% in Q3 and accelerated to 13% in Q4.
Performance in the Emerging segment, the group’s number one growth driver, continues to demonstrate strong underlying demand. Nigeria grew volumes 13.5% over FY20, with continued momentum in Q4 despite a tougher comparative; all categories grew double-digits in the market, except Water.
EBIT margins (-20bps like-for-like) were protected by the €120m of cost savings that management was able to quickly identify and implement during the year. Going forward, CCH expects ‘small’ operating margin expansion in FY21 as cost control will be maintained in the face of rising input costs and FX headwinds, with a return to the longer-term guidance of 20-40bps p.a. once the backdrop normalises.
Cash generation was strong over the year, although some of the working capital inflow (+€108m in FY20) was due to the phasing of some payments from customers that should partly reverse in H1 of 2021. Net debt/EBITDA closed the year at 1.5x, at the lower end of the 1.5-2.0x targeted range, and the dividend was raised 3.2%. Looking into FY21, the refinancing of debt at lower rates means finance costs should fall by c. 10%. Management wants to maintain a flexible balance sheet but, if there are no meaningful acquisition targets or major capex investments, special dividends will be considered from time to time. The next bond maturity is in 2024.
We note CCH is building its own recycled PET factory in Poland that will help the company reach its packaging targets; another factory is planned for Italy.