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07 Dec 2023
First Take: Future - Stabilisation and clarity

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First Take: Future - Stabilisation and clarity
Future plc (FUTR:LON), 662 | Mony Group PLC (MONY:LON), 196
- Published:
07 Dec 2023 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Darren Milne -
Pages:
4 -
FY results in-line
Future have today reported FY results broadly in line with expectations, with revenue of £788.9m (down 10% organically) and EBITA of £256.4m. Leverage fell to 1.25x given strong ongoing cash flow generation. By division, Media fell 13%, with Magazines down 5%; alternatively, the UK at -4% and the US at -19%.
New strategy and margin targets, CFO departs
The key focus is likely to be a new ‘Growth Acceleration Strategy’ introduced by the new CEO – Future announced an incremental £25-30m of investment over 2 years (£20m in FY24) focused on further growing their engaged audience and on growing revenue per user through a wider range of monetisation strategies. Management do note they will have a continuous review of the portfolio to ensure effective capital allocation. On the outlook, management highlight that stabilisation of trends means they expect a return to growth in H224 (giving low single digit growth for FY24) and that mid-term they are targeting mid-single digit organic growth, with operating margins of 28-30% (cons 32%). Separately, the CFO has announced her intention to leave the company later next year, having joined in June 2015.
Pricing in a perfect storm
After the recent pull back, the shares currently trade at 5x CY24E EBITDA, or <4x if one stripped out GoCo at the current MONY valuation – we believe the shares are pricing in a perfect storm of concerns and headwinds, but stabilising operating trends and clarity on investment levels should mean we are nearing an inflection point.