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08 Aug 2023
Future : Don’t miss the wood for the trees - Buy

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Future : Don’t miss the wood for the trees - Buy
Future plc (FUTR:LON), 694 | Mony Group PLC (MONY:LON), 195
- Published:
08 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
6 -
Headwinds, to trading & sentiment: In the short-term, audience declines (particularly in the US / tech space) have weighed on revenue trends, but management are adamant that this did not reflect market share shifts post Google’s algorithm changes. Ad yield data & recent results from peers highlight the current pressure on ad budgets, but the annualising effect of these should ease the market backdrop at least somewhat over time. More structurally, generative AI will remain a topic for much debate – whilst it could potentially summarise basic facts, consumers are likely to want in-depth, accurate, trusted review information, and publishers – in consortia – will aim to ensure they still receive payment for their content.
CEO signalling: Signs of the new CEO’s strategy to address these issues are understandably closely watched – incremental investment to boost editorial / US sales presence is strategically sensible, but we do not expect any dramatic re-basing of group profitability. As a reminder, even if EBITDA margins fell to 30% (from c.35% now), the stock would still trade at <7x EBITDA. As a broader indicator of the CEO’s views on the equity, he has personally started to build a stake and has announced a new £45m share buyback program in recent times.
Pricing a perfect storm: On forecasts, we cut revenues 5-7% and operating profit by 6% in FY23E and 12% in FY24E. Future now trades at c.4.5x FY24E EBITDA, with a significant double digit FCF yield – we set our new TP at 1600p, based on a target FCF yield of 8%. To put valuation in context, the amount paid for GoCo represents nearly 50% of the current EV – if we assumed £150m of insurance-related revenue at a 30% EBITDA margin and valued it at the current MONY multiple (9x), the implied rump would be trading at <4x EBITDA. We recognise the risks & uncertainties, but believe this is much too harsh – leaving scope for investors of varying kinds to potentially take advantage.