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16 Jan 2020
Informa : Getting the credit it deserves - Buy

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Informa : Getting the credit it deserves - Buy
- Published:
16 Jan 2020 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
6 -
Called Markets for a reason: The Markets division is likely to have grown at nearly 4.5% in 2019 despite a c.1% drag from the UBM Fashion portfolio and the impact of disruption in Hong Kong – the easing of both headwinds should allow divisional growth to accelerate this year. More fundamentally though, we believe the structural upgrade of the typical exhibition business model is yet to be appreciated. As the MarkitMakr initiative (launching online marketplaces for industry buyers/sellers that attend the exhibition) rolls out more widely, there should be a meaningful improvement in the resilience of the division (and incremental revenue opportunities).
Cash generation provides optionality: Natural operating leverage starts to kick in with higher growth – as well as allowing organic investment to support growth, it should provide optionality on cash returns accelerating. With the dividend pay-out below 45% in 2018, growth should remain ahead of earnings in FY19/20, and with leverage reaching c.2x by year-end 2020E, we think next year could see the company consider implementing a regular buyback programme (every £100m, or 1% of market cap, adds only 0.1x).
More to go for: We trim underlying growth modestly in FY19E to reflect the impact of Hong Kong disruption on the Markets business, and update for recent disposals and sterling strength – this causes earnings to fall c.4% from FY20E onwards (and our price target to fall to 925p). Informa now trades at 16.4x FY20E earnings with a 3% dividend yield, still a meaningful discount to slower-growing RELX at c.21x PE. Although RELX’s valuation is historically justifiable, with Informa structurally boosting growth and looking to incremental cash returns, we see scope for the gap to narrow – it remains a key large cap pick in the Media sector.