We put our forecasts for Greencore under review on 30th March, when the group withdrew guidance from the market. We have no visibility as to when it might reinstate guidance, but we have revised our forecasts albeit on a scenario basis. As we have flagged with other companies, it is highly likely that these early estimates will prove inaccurate, but they do provide an early guide as to how the business might be affected this year and into the next. The trading impact is most keenly felt in the group’s food to go activities. With wide-scale population movement largely absent at present, “on the go” food purchases are much curtailed; meals are largely being consumed at home. As a result, there is some compensating increase in the group’s other convenience categories, but these are smaller in scale and we assume lower margin. Given the current situation, FY20 profit is likely to fall someway short of FY19, and we downgrade our EPS by 35%, vs pre-Covid levels, although the assumptions are unsophisticated and likely to change. However, as movement restrictions are eased, and workforces return, the group’s food to go revenue should start to recover through FY21, although the economic fall-out of the pandemic could have some ongoing impact on employment levels and consumer confidence. We downgrade FY21E EPS by 20%, assuming some ongoing Covid-19 impact into 1H of the group’s new financial year. We set a new target price at 200p which does not put the group on a challenging PER in a sector context. The balance sheet looks sound. Actions taken should mitigate any large-scale cash impact, leaving the business in solid shape to continue to implement the group’s wider strategy.