Our estimates depend primarily on how soon government imposed lockdowns are lifted. At this point we expect they will ease in the latter part of Q2, but this could change. Two key markets for ABI, Mexico (8% of sales) and South Africa (6% of sales), have banned the sale and production of alcohol for about a month. ABI trades broadly in-line with its large peers post the downgrade. For Q120E, we expect organic volumes -11%, rev/hl +3%, organic EBITDA 12% and normalized EPS -$0.19. The decline will be driven by Asia, but North America and EMEA should see some signs of deterioration, too. Q1 has a tough comp anyway, excluding COVID-19, as the SAB synergies are no longer coming through. ABI is due to report Q1 on 7th May. For Q220E, we expect organic volumes -20%, rev/hl +1%, organic EBITDA 26% and normalized EPS $0.46. In this quarter, we expect the biggest drags will come from Middle Americas (Mexico), North America and EMEA. Asia volumes will still be negative, we think. Both ABI and Pernod have noted that although citizens have returned to work in China, the on-trade is far from recovered. Restaurants are spacing customers more widely apart (with a limit of 2pp per table in Beijing), and many workers are choosing to eat at home or at their desks. With high inventories in the channel from the Chinese New Year that wasn’t, we think it will take longer than usual for volumes to recover – albeit Beer with its shorter shelf life should recover faster than Spirits. Earlier this week, ABI placed 10.2m treasury shares in the market to satisfy the exchange of the old privately held SAB Zenzele shares, issued by SAB in 2010, into the new broad-based black empowerment programme Zenzele Kabili launched by ABI in 2020, which will be listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. ABI has also recently secured additional funding from its banks.