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  • 13 Apr 2021

Investec UK Daily: 13/04/2021


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,170 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 268 | Aviva plc (AV:LON), 620 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 258 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 14.3 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 98.8 | Chesnara Plc (CSN:LON), 277 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,670 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 136 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 104 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 250 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 342 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 85.1 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 11,685 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 662 | Sanderson Design Group PLC (SDG:LON), 52.5 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 673 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 53.8 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 319 | XP Power Ltd. (XPP:LON), 921

  • Investec Bank
    • Martin Young | Ben Bourne | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Ben Cohen | Thomas Rands, CFA

    • 12 pages


 

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Investec UK Daily: 13/04/2021


Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,170 | ASOS Plc (ASC:LON), 268 | Aviva plc (AV:LON), 620 | B&M European Value Retail SA (BME:LON), 258 | boohoo group Plc (DEBS:LON), 14.3 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 98.8 | Chesnara Plc (CSN:LON), 277 | Greggs plc (GRG:LON), 1,670 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 136 | JD Sports Fashion Plc (JD:LON), 104 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 250 | Marks and Spencer Group plc (MKS:LON), 342 | Naked Wines plc (WINE:LON), 85.1 | Next plc (NXT:LON), 11,685 | Phoenix Group Holdings plc (PHNX:LON), 662 | Sanderson Design Group PLC (SDG:LON), 52.5 | WH Smith PLC (SMWH:LON), 673 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 53.8 | Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (WOSG:LON), 319 | XP Power Ltd. (XPP:LON), 921

  • Published: 13 Apr 2021
  • Author: Martin Young | Ben Bourne | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Ben Cohen | Thomas Rands, CFA
  • Pages: 12
  • Investec Bank


One year on from the start of the pandemic and, given the numerous challenges in 2020 and difficulty with making direct comparisons given the number of lockdowns and sales/channel volatility, the BRC has presented its data on a two year, pre pandemic basis. Sales remain strong despite huge stockpiling this time last year. March 2021 saw an 8.3% increase in spending (LFL +8.4%) compared to March 2019, driven by food spend. 3 month average Food total sales were up 11.6% with LFLs up 14.7%. March last year saw panic buying and empty supermarket shelves. Social distancing started to ease towards the end of the month, together with Easter moving back into March boosting sales significantly. Non-food in-store LFL sales were down 44.4% (versus 2019) with LFLs down 44% (March LFLs excludes temporary closed stores). The pandemic has concentrated spend on home-centric categories, such as computing and home appliances. The majority of categories remain in decline, and fashion and footwear remain the hardest hit. On a year-on-year basis, Food growth slowed with 3 month average sales down 6.6%. Indoor gatherings are still banned, although there was a good spell of weather with Easter. Online non-food sales increased 94% in March versus March 2019, above the 3-month average of 90.8%. With many stores still closed, online purchases reached the highest on record, particularly for TVs, gaming consoles and laptops. Some categories like Men’s and Children’s clothing and Furniture reached triple digits growth according to the BRC. The Non-food online penetration rate increased from 43.3% in March 2020 to 59% this March. Clothing, despite being hardest hit versus 2019, did see a significant improvement year-on-year, with womenswear quickest to react ahead of more social events. Children’s clothing remains the strongest area in the category helped by back-to-school. Online penetration increased to 69.7% in March. Elsewhere, both large and small household appliances have slowed month-on-month, but remain firmly in positive territory. Computing sales fell for the first time since November 2019 y-o-y (tough comp), but are up versus 2019. Within Health & Beauty, skincare products and hand creams remain a priority, with cosmetics continuing to underperform despite increased socialising. Furniture returned to growth yoy, but this was due to a weak comp and was some way behind on a 2 year basis. Home accessories were flat on a 2 year basis, up on a 1 year basis, with textiles down on pre-pandemic levels still. DIY benefitted from a good Easter, and gaming consoles continued to perform well. Our view: COVID has been the ultimate survival test. The strong are expected to get stronger. Government support packages will provide some relief to struggling retailers until after the summer. We see scope for further upgrades and re-rating as a more ‘normalised’ environment returns and confidence increases.

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