Crisis impact takes time to appear: Neither the share price or Rightmove management have been slow to recognise how the crisis is affecting the customer base – hence the offer to discount their fees by 75% for four months from April. That said, the impact on customer numbers could be more pronounced, and take longer to manifest, than some expect given the lagged impact of transaction numbers on agent cash flows. Using Knight Frank forecasts of a >35% (versus 2008 at -43%) drop in UK house sales in FY20 as a base assumption, we illustrate a potential scenario for agent industry revenues by month in Figure 2. We assume Rightmove extends the discount to 6 months, and that agent branches fall 10% on average (vs. 2008 -13%). Critical moment: The crisis however represents a critical moment for the longer-term. Zoopla has started to offer certain firms five months’ access for free, without conditions, and a widening of this offer whilst branches are under severe financial pressure (both now and on re-opening) could potentially be the catalyst for greater switching from Rightmove, or somewhat moderated pricing power for them. We assume a 7% rebound in agent branches in FY21E, and show sensitivities to agent numbers and long-term ARPA in figure 5. On the flipside, the strong balance sheet (helped by the suspension of the buyback and dividend) gives Rightmove significant capacity to respond. Risks and opportunities: We cut revenue and EPS by 37% and 41% respectively in FY20E, and by 11% and 13% in FY21E, moving our DCF valuation to c.520p. RMV currently trades at 19x FY21E EBITDA, versus AUTO at 16x – we believe it is hard at this stage to justify a premium given the long-term competitive concerns, and remain at Hold.