This content is only available within our institutional offering.

16 Jan 2020
Investec UK Daily: 16/01/2020
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,216 | Auto Trader Group PLC (AUTO:LON), 800 | Big Yellow Group PLC (BYG:LON), 922 | Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON), 500 | Brooks Macdonald Group plc (BRK:LON), 1,775 | Cairn Homes PLC (CRN:LON), 192 | Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV:LON), 378 | Gulf Marine Services PLC (GMS:LON), 18.3 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 140 | Hays plc (HAS:LON), 61.4 | Headlam Group plc (HEAD:LON), 67.5 | Informa Plc (INF:LON), 891 | Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. (TKWY:AMS), 0 | Just Eat Plc (JE.:LON), 0 | Mony Group PLC (MONY:LON), 202 | On The Beach Group PLC (OTB:LON), 270 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,480 | Resolute Mining Limited (RSG:LON), 33.6 | Rightmove plc (RMV:LON), 741 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 52.2 | John Wood Group PLC (WG:LON), 18.6

Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Investec UK Daily: 16/01/2020
Associated British Foods plc (ABF:LON), 2,216 | Auto Trader Group PLC (AUTO:LON), 800 | Big Yellow Group PLC (BYG:LON), 922 | Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON), 500 | Brooks Macdonald Group plc (BRK:LON), 1,775 | Cairn Homes PLC (CRN:LON), 192 | Frontier Developments Plc (FDEV:LON), 378 | Gulf Marine Services PLC (GMS:LON), 18.3 | Halfords Group Plc (HFD:LON), 140 | Hays plc (HAS:LON), 61.4 | Headlam Group plc (HEAD:LON), 67.5 | Informa Plc (INF:LON), 891 | Just Eat Takeaway.com N.V. (TKWY:AMS), 0 | Just Eat Plc (JE.:LON), 0 | Mony Group PLC (MONY:LON), 202 | On The Beach Group PLC (OTB:LON), 270 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,480 | Resolute Mining Limited (RSG:LON), 33.6 | Rightmove plc (RMV:LON), 741 | TheWorks.co.uk plc (WRKS:LON), 52.2 | John Wood Group PLC (WG:LON), 18.6
- Published:
16 Jan 2020 -
Author:
Dr Andrew Whitney | Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Bourne | Kellie McAvoy | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Michael Donnelly | Hunter Hillcoat | Salvatore Caruso, CFA | Ronan Dunphy | Thomas Rands, CFA | Tom Callan -
Pages:
27 -
Looking for greater clarity and stability: After a decade dominated by macro and political themes, with stock picking focused around topics like the financial crisis, Brexit and trade wars, the new decade is bringing (we hope) at least some signs of stability. We believe therefore we will start to see more differentiation within sub-sectors in 2020, rather than rotational shifts between sub-sectors based on macro themes - and the winners will be those companies with the most structural scope to expand their earnings power and quality (under-pinning growth as we move through latter part of economic cycle).
Upgrade Auto Trader to Buy: We have today upgraded Auto Trader to Buy - it creates one of the most polarising debates in the sector (after Cineworld), and we believe it has significant structural scope to grow its revenues, that cyclical headwinds may be easing, and that competitive threats are over-stated. The valuation discount that has opened up versus Rightmove (and the recent transaction benchmark of AutoScout) provides an attractive entry point into a long-term winner.
Downgrade RELX to Sell: On RELX, after a decade when almost everything went right, we see the risk-reward worsening, so downgrade to Sell. Profit growth could slow given the Risk division potentially slowing as the Insurance segment matures, potential disruptive developments to come around Open Access in the US, and Thomson Reuters becoming a more assertive competitor in the US Legal market. We would advocate taking some profits and looking elsewhere for better opportunities.
Updates & re-iterations: We have also published notes today on Informa (structural qualities becoming better appreciated), Hyve (earnings upgrade cycle starts with focus on operational execution and recent US acquisition) and DMGT (which we recently downgraded after a strong run given revenue and profit growth is stuttering).
Key picks for 2020: On the long side, we highlight Informa, Auto Trader and Cineworld as our preferred larger cap names, with Euromoney, Moneysupermarket and Sumo amongst the smaller cap names. At current levels, we remain cautious on the likes of RELX (Sell), DMGT and Just Eat.