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20 Nov 2019
Investec UK Daily: 20/11/2019
Aviva plc (AV:LON), 573 | Fevertree Drinks PLC (FEVR:LON), 808 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 293 | Liontrust Asset Management PLC (LIO:LON), 346 | Pennon Group Plc (PNN:LON), 505 | Petrofac Limited (PFC:LON), 3.8 | Sage Group plc (SGE:LON), 1,254

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Investec UK Daily: 20/11/2019
Aviva plc (AV:LON), 573 | Fevertree Drinks PLC (FEVR:LON), 808 | Kingfisher Plc (KGF:LON), 293 | Liontrust Asset Management PLC (LIO:LON), 346 | Pennon Group Plc (PNN:LON), 505 | Petrofac Limited (PFC:LON), 3.8 | Sage Group plc (SGE:LON), 1,254
- Published:
20 Nov 2019 -
Author:
Martin Young | Ben Bourne | Julian Yates | Roger Phillips | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Nicola Mallard | Ben Cohen | Salvatore Caruso, CFA | Thomas Rands, CFA | Alex Smith -
Pages:
13 -
Fever-Tree has issued a trading update ahead of its December 31 year end. It has continued to see growth in all of its markets in FY19, with some regions accelerating. However, there has been a slower performance in the UK (off-trade) than the group had expected, given the tough comparators through the late summer but also a slowdown in consumer confidence. As a result, it anticipates full year revenues will be in the range of £266-268m. This is c.3% less than our forecast of £276m, but still 12-13% up on the prior year.
It has maintained its #1 off-trade market share in the UK (38% at end Q3), with new premium entrants collectively still only having less than 5%. Schweppes has gained some share, but only from private label. The group’s performance in the UK on-trade (50% of the UK) has been better, with further new accounts added to its leading position. Overall, the UK is projected to grow sales by 2% in FY19.
In the USA, the performance has accelerated in 2H in both the off and on-trade channels. The Southern Glazers relationship is working well. They expect to deliver c34% FY19 sales growth (c36% 2H19) which is higher than we were forecasting (prev 30%). The group has signed a west coast bottling partner and this will commence in 1H 2020.
In Europe, growth has also accelerated in 2H19 and it expects to deliver FY19 growth of 19% (12% in 1H19; 25% in 2H19).
With the slightly reduced sales figure, we trim our FY19E PBT number by 3% to £79.7m. This indicates EBITDA margins will be maintained at c31%. For FY20E we maintain our previous growth rates, so the reduction to key headline figures is similar, at 3% for revenue and PBT.