Most retailers have now shut all stores except for essential retailers which include B&M, Halfords, Kingfisher (B&Q, Screwfix), Marks & Spencer and WH Smith. As retailers work out how to trade these sites safely, it is unclear how many of their sites will be able to stay open for the duration. The staff of any stores/sites closed will be furloughed and eligible for the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Online operations continue to run for most retailers. This may not be sustainable due to insufficient employees or pressure that employees do not want to work. For example, Next has now closed its warehouse. Demand is expected to be severely impact in clothing and big ticket/home related categories as consumers batten down the hatches. This will result in stock issues later on and increased discounting to clear seasonal stock in the summer months. Retailers stand to benefit from a number of the Government support packages including a 12-month business rate holiday, the Coronavirus Job Retention scheme, the deferral of all HMRC payments for three months and potentially business interruption loans. We have modelled cash burn scenarios for all bricks & mortar led retailers in our coverage, assuming all stores and online operations are closed. Some have indicated their cash burn; the rest we have estimated adjusting for a business rate holiday. We have offset the cash burn in months 2 to 4 with the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme payments from the Government. We do not take into account the unwinding of working capital, though we have shown historic trade debtor numbers on the balance sheet, or the benefit from deferral of all HMRC payments. A dividend suspension or non-payment of previously announced dividends has been indicated by all retailers as they look to preserve cash. Valuations are focused on liquidity. As our scenario analysis shows, most companies have the liquidity with current facilities to ‘trade’ through a prolonged downturn, though for some this is reliant on Banks waiving covenants. The strong usually get stronger in a downturn while recovery plays tend to get set back a year or so as they typically emerge with more debt and a reduced ability to invest. We would favour the more consistent, proven stories like B&M, JD Sports, Greggs, Watches of Switzerland and WH Smith for the longer term. All published forecasts and target prices are under review.