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29 Jan 2021
Investec UK Daily: 29/01/2021
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON), 500 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 105 | CVS Group plc (CVSG:LON), 1,223 | Genus plc (GNS:LON), 2,695 | Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc (HIK:LON), 1,720 | Hollywood Bowl Group Plc (BOWL:LON), 250 | OSB Group PLC (OSB:LON), 535 | Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG:LON), 866

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Investec UK Daily: 29/01/2021
Bloomsbury Publishing Plc (BMY:LON), 500 | Card Factory Plc (CARD:LON), 105 | CVS Group plc (CVSG:LON), 1,223 | Genus plc (GNS:LON), 2,695 | Hikma Pharmaceuticals Plc (HIK:LON), 1,720 | Hollywood Bowl Group Plc (BOWL:LON), 250 | OSB Group PLC (OSB:LON), 535 | Paragon Banking Group PLC (PAG:LON), 866
- Published:
29 Jan 2021 -
Author:
Dr Andrew Whitney | Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot | Ben Hunt, CFA | Kate Calvert | Nicola Mallard | Ian Gordon | Dr Jens Lindqvist -
Pages:
12 -
Amberen – a high growth brand, suited to Alliance Pharma’s niche. APH recently acquired privately-held Biogix Inc for $110m (15.5x FY20 EBITDA), thereby gaining access to Amberen, a leading brand in the US Over-The-Counter menopause symptom relief supplement category. Amberen becomes APH’s 3rd Star brand, with management flagging that it could become the group’s 2nd largest product. We see it materially increasing group exposure to the US market, whist bolstering the high margin, high growth Consumer Healthcare portfolio, which on FY21E now represents c.73% of group revenue. Our updated forecasts show teens percentage EBITDA accretion from inclusion of an asset that is set to grow at a double-digit percentage. We leave the revenue synergy potential as upside.
Business model working particularly well. The recent FY20 trading statement showed particular strength from Kelo-cote, the consumer portfolio performing well against a difficult market backdrop and the start of a recovery from Prescription Medicines. Pleasingly, cash generation remains strong. With a forecast FY22E FCF yield of 7.9%, we see leverage being paid down rapidly and the potential for further deal-making into the future. Our deal accretion scenario analysis within suggests 20% FY23 EPS accretion to be possible, whilst still leaving material headroom on banking covenants.
Valuation update. We reiterate our Buy recommendation, with a DCF-based price target of 110p that now includes Amberen. We see the enlarged Consumer Healthcare portfolio representing c.80% of our target price, with the stock (in our view) currently trading materially below fair value. Even at our new 110p target price (up from 94p), APH would trade on an FY21E PE of c.20x for a 14% FY20-22E EPS CAGR, representing a PEG ratio of c.1.5x. Buy.