Considering the value at Risk: The Risk division is the key driver of growth for RELX and the biggest contributor to the group valuation, so the share price will be sensitive to any potential slowdown in growth. The Insurance segment in the US is the core part of the business, and we believe this could slow notably as the dramatic fall in auto insurance premium inflation during 2019 could lead to a slowdown (or decline) in insurance quote volumes. If Insurance were to move to 1%, this would put the division to 5% pa growth, and raise questions about the maturity and structural growth profile of the business - applying a 15x FY20E EBITA multiple (currently 18x) would remove c.150p from our valuation. STM - awaiting executive orders: In the Scientific, Technical and Medical division, the Open Access debate could be back with a vengeance in 2020, should reports of a potential Trump administration executive order to make all federally funded US research free to read immediately prove true. Although RELX is willing to sign these hybrid Open Access type deals, it could cause disruption near-term; having another 8% of global research not behind a paywall could cause price deflation in future subscription renewals with other customers. Separately, peer review costs and sterling strength could impact margins long-term, moderating group profit growth. Pricing perfection: Lower underlying assumptions plus the impact of sterling strength, a smaller buyback assumption and a recent acquisition mean our EPS falls c.3% in FY20/21E. RELX now trades at 21x FY20E PE, offering a 2.5% dividend yield - with forecast earnings growth of c5%, the balance of PE to Total Return is the highest of its peer group. This is leaves the risk-reward skewed to the downside in our view – take some profits here.