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05 Sep 2023
RELX Group : RELX.AI – upgrade to Buy - Buy

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RELX Group : RELX.AI – upgrade to Buy - Buy
Informa Plc (INF:LON), 891 | RELX PLC (REL:LON), 3,445
- Published:
05 Sep 2023 -
Author:
Alastair Reid | Ross Broadfoot -
Pages:
16 -
Bond yields & AI dominate the debate: Having reached a high of >£27 earlier this year, two factors have weighed on the share price in more recent months: (1) The ‘quality growth’ nature of RELX has historically made it somewhat of a ‘bond proxy’ and fears over further yield increases have been a headwind. We may at least be not far from peak interest rate expectations at this point. (2) More fundamentally, the rise of generative AI gave much cause for concern. However, we believe these fears are profoundly mis-placed given open source tools do not have access to RELX content/data, and given the importance of RELX’s offering (and its accuracy) to its professional customer base.
An AI winner: In contrast, RELX is set to be one of the key beneficiaries from generative AI. This should first become apparent in Legal, with the recent launch of Lexis+ AI, utilising third party models in combination with RELX’s proprietary, pay-walled content. Management note law firms will be charged incrementally for access to it (with significant interest already), given the value creation it can provide – assuming 5% of US customers pa sign up, at a charge of £3k pa, this could add 1% to Legal growth. Elsewhere, the test launch of a Scopus AI product in STM could generate meaningful opportunities over time - £50k of incremental revenue per academic institution from an extra 5% pa of the customer base would contribute c.1ppt to STM growth.
Moving into a different league: New FX, tax and interest assumptions leave EPS 1-2% down long-term but our new 2850p TP is set in our updated DCF/SOTP range. RELX trades at c.15x CY24E EBITDA, a deserved premium to Informa but a notable discount to US peers. With AI helping RELX cement its place at the forefront of global data providers, we see no fundamental reason for global valuation differences and upgrade to Buy.