We model low-single digit revenue growth in 2026, driven by pockets of strength, including magnesium alloys for aerospace and defense and industrial gas cylinders (for the rebounding semiconductor market), will offset continued soft alternative fuel markets.
We also project modestly wider margins, underpinned by cost savings from the consolidation of its West Coast gas cylinder operations (by 2H:26) and North American magnesium powders business (late 2026 and 2027).
We expect normalized flare and MRE (meals ready to eat) and stable cylinders for SCBA (self-contained breathing apparatus) demand, with a potential uptick for the SCBA market as early as 2027, based on the anticipated replacement cycle, according to one major supplier.
The weak Class 8 truck market likely limits opportunities for alternative fuels growth in 2026, in our view.
Ongoing new product development offers potential upside to our estimates, noting the early success of its UGR-Es (MREs for groups).
Our model assumes magnesium prices remain stable in 2026 as they have been through 2025.
We also anticipate relatively stable free cash flow in 2026-2027 as modestly growing cash flow from operations is partially offset by slightly higher capex to drive facility efficiencies.
We model cash flow will further strengthen the healthy balance sheet. Net leverage was already under 1x at the end of 3Q:25 compared to nearly 2x in 1H:24.
05 Jan 2026
2026 Outlook: Expect Modest Revenue Growth, Driven By Industrial Gas Cylinder And Aerospace & Defense Alloy Demand; Margins Will Benefit From Cost Outs By 2H:26; Maintain $17 Price Target
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2026 Outlook: Expect Modest Revenue Growth, Driven By Industrial Gas Cylinder And Aerospace & Defense Alloy Demand; Margins Will Benefit From Cost Outs By 2H:26; Maintain $17 Price Target
- Published:
05 Jan 2026 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We model low-single digit revenue growth in 2026, driven by pockets of strength, including magnesium alloys for aerospace and defense and industrial gas cylinders (for the rebounding semiconductor market), will offset continued soft alternative fuel markets.
We also project modestly wider margins, underpinned by cost savings from the consolidation of its West Coast gas cylinder operations (by 2H:26) and North American magnesium powders business (late 2026 and 2027).
We expect normalized flare and MRE (meals ready to eat) and stable cylinders for SCBA (self-contained breathing apparatus) demand, with a potential uptick for the SCBA market as early as 2027, based on the anticipated replacement cycle, according to one major supplier.
The weak Class 8 truck market likely limits opportunities for alternative fuels growth in 2026, in our view.
Ongoing new product development offers potential upside to our estimates, noting the early success of its UGR-Es (MREs for groups).
Our model assumes magnesium prices remain stable in 2026 as they have been through 2025.
We also anticipate relatively stable free cash flow in 2026-2027 as modestly growing cash flow from operations is partially offset by slightly higher capex to drive facility efficiencies.
We model cash flow will further strengthen the healthy balance sheet. Net leverage was already under 1x at the end of 3Q:25 compared to nearly 2x in 1H:24.