We model modest revenue growth and wider margins in 2026-2027 driven by ongoing new product development and plant consolidation efforts.
However we project narrower margins and slightly reduced revenue year over year in 4Q:25 against a particularly challenging comp, which included the pull forward of high margin flare and meals ready-to-eat (MRE) orders in the Elektron segment.
We anticipate Gas Cylinders revenue declined 3% year over year in 4Q:25 as stable SCBA (self-contained breathing apparatus) and improving industrial gas demand is offset by continued weakness in alternative fuels (due in part to the soft Class 8 truck market).
We expect an uptick in SCBA demand as early as 2027, based on the anticipated replacement cycle, according to one major supplier.
We also project modestly wider margins in 2026-2027, underpinned by cost savings from the consolidation of its West Coast gas cylinder operations (by 2H:26) and North American magnesium powders business (late 2026 and 2027).
Ongoing new product development offers potential upside to our estimates, highlighting the early success of its UGR-Es (MREs for groups) as well as initial orders to its new U.K. facility for bulk gas transportation modules.
We forecast net leverage remaining under 1x at the end of 4Q:25 compared to nearly 2x in 1H:24 with growing cash flow funding further near-term debt reduction.
12 Feb 2026
Model Modest Revenue Growth And Margin Improvement In 2026-2027 But A Year-Over-Year EPS Decline In 4Q:25 Against A Particularly Challenging Comp; Maintain $17 Price Target
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Model Modest Revenue Growth And Margin Improvement In 2026-2027 But A Year-Over-Year EPS Decline In 4Q:25 Against A Particularly Challenging Comp; Maintain $17 Price Target
- Published:
12 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We model modest revenue growth and wider margins in 2026-2027 driven by ongoing new product development and plant consolidation efforts.
However we project narrower margins and slightly reduced revenue year over year in 4Q:25 against a particularly challenging comp, which included the pull forward of high margin flare and meals ready-to-eat (MRE) orders in the Elektron segment.
We anticipate Gas Cylinders revenue declined 3% year over year in 4Q:25 as stable SCBA (self-contained breathing apparatus) and improving industrial gas demand is offset by continued weakness in alternative fuels (due in part to the soft Class 8 truck market).
We expect an uptick in SCBA demand as early as 2027, based on the anticipated replacement cycle, according to one major supplier.
We also project modestly wider margins in 2026-2027, underpinned by cost savings from the consolidation of its West Coast gas cylinder operations (by 2H:26) and North American magnesium powders business (late 2026 and 2027).
Ongoing new product development offers potential upside to our estimates, highlighting the early success of its UGR-Es (MREs for groups) as well as initial orders to its new U.K. facility for bulk gas transportation modules.
We forecast net leverage remaining under 1x at the end of 4Q:25 compared to nearly 2x in 1H:24 with growing cash flow funding further near-term debt reduction.