We raise our price target to $64 (from $49), as 4Q:25 revenue and free cash flow easily beat our estimates and initial 2026 guidance exceeded our forecast.
Revenue expanded almost 1% year over year to $202 million in 4Q:25, more than 6% above our projection, and compared to about a 6% decline in the global active rig count, according to Baker Hughes, while free cash flow (FCF) of almost $22 million easily exceeded our $12 million estimate.
We expect FET benefited from the stable U.S. rig count in 4Q:25 compared to sharp year-end declines over the previous two years, as well as solid growth in international and offshore markets.
Management guided for 2026 revenue of $800-$880 million, about 6% growth at the midpoint, compared to our previous estimate of only $805 million and free cash flow of $55-$75 million, above our former forecast of $52 million.
The strong guidance is underpinned by growing backlog (up about $100 million from last year) and success of recent product launches, in our view.
Our increased revenue and cash flow estimates reflect the strong backlog. Our lower EPS forecast is based on higher tax and share count assumptions.
We model nearly 50% of 2026 free cash flow funds the ongoing share repurchase program, as well as revolver repayments. The balance sheet supports the ongoing buyback or strategic M&A, with net leverage of only 1.2x year-end 2025.
Our revised $64 price target is based on 12x our raised 2026 FCFPS share forecast $5.30, previously 9x our former 2026-2027 FCFPS estimate of $5.43. The higher multiple reflects the shorter time horizon and increasing valuations for our oilfield capital equipment and consumables peer group. Our moderate risk rating is supported by the healthy balance sheet and growing cash flow.
23 Feb 2026
Raise Price Target To $64 (From $49) Following Strong 4Q:25 Results And Positive 2026 Guidance; Expect Revenue To Continue To Easily Outpace Changes In Global Rig Count
Sign up for free to access
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Get access to the latest equity research in real-time from 12 commissioned providers.
Raise Price Target To $64 (From $49) Following Strong 4Q:25 Results And Positive 2026 Guidance; Expect Revenue To Continue To Easily Outpace Changes In Global Rig Count
- Published:
23 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Steve Ferazani, CFA -
Pages:
10 -
We raise our price target to $64 (from $49), as 4Q:25 revenue and free cash flow easily beat our estimates and initial 2026 guidance exceeded our forecast.
Revenue expanded almost 1% year over year to $202 million in 4Q:25, more than 6% above our projection, and compared to about a 6% decline in the global active rig count, according to Baker Hughes, while free cash flow (FCF) of almost $22 million easily exceeded our $12 million estimate.
We expect FET benefited from the stable U.S. rig count in 4Q:25 compared to sharp year-end declines over the previous two years, as well as solid growth in international and offshore markets.
Management guided for 2026 revenue of $800-$880 million, about 6% growth at the midpoint, compared to our previous estimate of only $805 million and free cash flow of $55-$75 million, above our former forecast of $52 million.
The strong guidance is underpinned by growing backlog (up about $100 million from last year) and success of recent product launches, in our view.
Our increased revenue and cash flow estimates reflect the strong backlog. Our lower EPS forecast is based on higher tax and share count assumptions.
We model nearly 50% of 2026 free cash flow funds the ongoing share repurchase program, as well as revolver repayments. The balance sheet supports the ongoing buyback or strategic M&A, with net leverage of only 1.2x year-end 2025.
Our revised $64 price target is based on 12x our raised 2026 FCFPS share forecast $5.30, previously 9x our former 2026-2027 FCFPS estimate of $5.43. The higher multiple reflects the shorter time horizon and increasing valuations for our oilfield capital equipment and consumables peer group. Our moderate risk rating is supported by the healthy balance sheet and growing cash flow.