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  • 09 Feb 2026

The AI Infrastructure Cycle: Constraints, Complexity, and Value Creation Beyond Compute


AAON (AAON:NYSE), 0 | Arcosa Inc (ACA:NYSE), 0 | INSTEEL INDUSTRIES (IIIN:NYSE), 0 | NORTHWEST PIPE CO (NWPX:NYSE), 0 | STERLING CONSTRUCTION CO (STRL:NYSE), 0 | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX:MEX), 0

  • Sidoti & Company
    • Alex Hantman | Julio Romero

    • 16 pages


 

This report examines AI infrastructure through the physical and digital layers required to deploy AI at scale and describes our view on stocks poised to benefit from this phase of the AI supercycle. We believe AI represents the latest general purpose technology cycle, comparable to prior infrastructure driven transformations (e.g., railroads, electrification, telecom, and the internet). Measured against these historical precedents, current AI infrastructure spending remains early. However, spending has been accelerating, with 2025 U.S. hyperscaler capex spending up 71% year over year, compared to 52% in 2024, per our analysis of the top five hyperscalers. Across record capex spending and operating earnings in AI infrastructure companies, we favor stocks of companies that are well positioned to monetize further gains from labor, power and reliability constraints (STRL and FIX), and rapidly increasing rack density and complexity (AAON). We also describe a derivative tier of our covered companies that benefit from AI driven capex exposure such as ACA, NWPX, IIIN, and SLND.

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The AI Infrastructure Cycle: Constraints, Complexity, and Value Creation Beyond Compute


AAON (AAON:NYSE), 0 | Arcosa Inc (ACA:NYSE), 0 | INSTEEL INDUSTRIES (IIIN:NYSE), 0 | NORTHWEST PIPE CO (NWPX:NYSE), 0 | STERLING CONSTRUCTION CO (STRL:NYSE), 0 | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX:MEX), 0

  • Published: 09 Feb 2026
  • Author: Alex Hantman | Julio Romero
  • Pages: 16
  • Sidoti & Company


This report examines AI infrastructure through the physical and digital layers required to deploy AI at scale and describes our view on stocks poised to benefit from this phase of the AI supercycle. We believe AI represents the latest general purpose technology cycle, comparable to prior infrastructure driven transformations (e.g., railroads, electrification, telecom, and the internet). Measured against these historical precedents, current AI infrastructure spending remains early. However, spending has been accelerating, with 2025 U.S. hyperscaler capex spending up 71% year over year, compared to 52% in 2024, per our analysis of the top five hyperscalers. Across record capex spending and operating earnings in AI infrastructure companies, we favor stocks of companies that are well positioned to monetize further gains from labor, power and reliability constraints (STRL and FIX), and rapidly increasing rack density and complexity (AAON). We also describe a derivative tier of our covered companies that benefit from AI driven capex exposure such as ACA, NWPX, IIIN, and SLND.

More Content

More Content

We Expect 4Q:25 Sales And Profit Gains Across ACA's Three Segments; ACA Well Positioned To Benefit From Power Investment And Other Secular Growth Themes; Maintain $131 Price Target

Companies: Arcosa Inc

Sidoti & Company

RAM Here's My Title For The Publication NEW NEW

Companies: BRC AAON* AAON BRC

Sidoti & Company

Raise Estimates And Price Target On NWPX To $88 (From $72); Think NWPX Can Continue To Monetize Gains From Labor, Power, And Reliability Constraints

Companies: NORTHWEST PIPE CO

Sidoti & Company

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Companies: AAON (AAON:NYSE)AAON (AAON:NYSE)

Sidoti & Company

We View ACA As Well Positioned To Monetize Gains From Industrywide Power Constraints; Trim 2026-2027 Estimates On Wind Tower Timing Risk; Lower Price Target To $131 (From $134)

Companies: Arcosa Inc

Sidoti & Company
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