This report examines AI infrastructure through the physical and digital layers required to deploy AI at scale and describes our view on stocks poised to benefit from this phase of the AI supercycle.
We believe AI represents the latest general purpose technology cycle, comparable to prior infrastructure driven transformations (e.g., railroads, electrification, telecom, and the internet). Measured against these historical precedents, current AI infrastructure spending remains early.
However, spending has been accelerating, with 2025 U.S. hyperscaler capex spending up 71% year over year, compared to 52% in 2024, per our analysis of the top five hyperscalers.
Across record capex spending and operating earnings in AI infrastructure companies, we favor stocks of companies that are well positioned to monetize further gains from labor, power and reliability constraints (STRL and FIX), and rapidly increasing rack density and complexity (AAON).
We also describe a derivative tier of our covered companies that benefit from AI driven capex exposure such as ACA, NWPX, IIIN, and SLND.
09 Feb 2026
The AI Infrastructure Cycle: Constraints, Complexity, and Value Creation Beyond Compute
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The AI Infrastructure Cycle: Constraints, Complexity, and Value Creation Beyond Compute
AAON (AAON:NYSE), 0 | Arcosa Inc (ACA:NYSE), 0 | INSTEEL INDUSTRIES (IIIN:NYSE), 0 | NORTHWEST PIPE CO (NWPX:NYSE), 0 | STERLING CONSTRUCTION CO (STRL:NYSE), 0 | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX:MEX), 0
- Published:
09 Feb 2026 -
Author:
Alex Hantman | Julio Romero -
Pages:
16 -
This report examines AI infrastructure through the physical and digital layers required to deploy AI at scale and describes our view on stocks poised to benefit from this phase of the AI supercycle.
We believe AI represents the latest general purpose technology cycle, comparable to prior infrastructure driven transformations (e.g., railroads, electrification, telecom, and the internet). Measured against these historical precedents, current AI infrastructure spending remains early.
However, spending has been accelerating, with 2025 U.S. hyperscaler capex spending up 71% year over year, compared to 52% in 2024, per our analysis of the top five hyperscalers.
Across record capex spending and operating earnings in AI infrastructure companies, we favor stocks of companies that are well positioned to monetize further gains from labor, power and reliability constraints (STRL and FIX), and rapidly increasing rack density and complexity (AAON).
We also describe a derivative tier of our covered companies that benefit from AI driven capex exposure such as ACA, NWPX, IIIN, and SLND.