Today, we examine AI infrastructure through the physical and digital layers required to deploy AI at scale, and discuss stocks poised to benefit from this phase of the AI supercycle (see our industry note titled (The AI Infrastructure Cycle: Constraints, Complexity and Value Creation Beyond Computing).
Across record capex spending and operating earnings on AI infrastructure companies, we favor stocks of companies well positioned to monetize further gains from labor, power, and reliability constraints.
We believe Arcosa, a growth oriented conglomerate focused on infrastructure related products and services, is favorably situated to benefit from increasing AI infrastructure demand.
Arcosa's most direct benefit from data centers stems from the opportunity to ease power constraints, particularly for ACA's utility & related structures unit (28% of sales through the first nine months of 2025).
Utility & related structures includes (1) utility, transmission and distribution poles, (2) traffic structures (3) lighting poles, and (4) telecom structures.
In addition to AI infrastructure construction, we think grid hardening initiatives, including increased electrification and connecting renewables to the grid, also benefit Arcosa.
Accelerating demand for ACA's utility & related structures products led to ACA's in-process conversion of a previously idled wind tower manufacturing facility to one that produces large utility poles, with production beginning in 2H:26.
We fine-tune our 2026-2027 estimates, as we foresee timing risk in ACA's wind tower business potentially pushing out volumes scheduled for 2026 into 2027. GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV, NC) on January 28 cited softness in U.S. onshore wind orders, and guided to 2026 organic wind revenue (encompassing onshore and offshore wind) of down low double digits.
Partially offsetting this, we also lowered our interest expense forecast, assuming greater debt reduction through 2027.
All in, we now project 2026 EPS of $4.67 (from $4.77) and 2027 EPS of $5.33 (from $5.40).
ACA's net debt stood at $1.4 billion at 3Q:25, for a total debt ratio of 38% and leverage ratio of 2.4x. We model net debt of $869 million (30%, 1.3x) at year-end 2027. ACA's solid balance sheet and record of strong cash flow generation support our moderate risk rating.
Our reduced $131 price target (from $134) is based on 28x our reduced 2026 EPS estimate of $4.67 (was $4.77).
09 Feb 2026
We View ACA As Well Positioned To Monetize Gains From Industrywide Power Constraints; Trim 2026-2027 Estimates On Wind Tower Timing Risk; Lower Price Target To $131 (From $134)
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We View ACA As Well Positioned To Monetize Gains From Industrywide Power Constraints; Trim 2026-2027 Estimates On Wind Tower Timing Risk; Lower Price Target To $131 (From $134)
Today, we examine AI infrastructure through the physical and digital layers required to deploy AI at scale, and discuss stocks poised to benefit from this phase of the AI supercycle (see our industry note titled (The AI Infrastructure Cycle: Constraints, Complexity and Value Creation Beyond Computing).
Across record capex spending and operating earnings on AI infrastructure companies, we favor stocks of companies well positioned to monetize further gains from labor, power, and reliability constraints.
We believe Arcosa, a growth oriented conglomerate focused on infrastructure related products and services, is favorably situated to benefit from increasing AI infrastructure demand.
Arcosa's most direct benefit from data centers stems from the opportunity to ease power constraints, particularly for ACA's utility & related structures unit (28% of sales through the first nine months of 2025).
Utility & related structures includes (1) utility, transmission and distribution poles, (2) traffic structures (3) lighting poles, and (4) telecom structures.
In addition to AI infrastructure construction, we think grid hardening initiatives, including increased electrification and connecting renewables to the grid, also benefit Arcosa.
Accelerating demand for ACA's utility & related structures products led to ACA's in-process conversion of a previously idled wind tower manufacturing facility to one that produces large utility poles, with production beginning in 2H:26.
We fine-tune our 2026-2027 estimates, as we foresee timing risk in ACA's wind tower business potentially pushing out volumes scheduled for 2026 into 2027. GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV, NC) on January 28 cited softness in U.S. onshore wind orders, and guided to 2026 organic wind revenue (encompassing onshore and offshore wind) of down low double digits.
Partially offsetting this, we also lowered our interest expense forecast, assuming greater debt reduction through 2027.
All in, we now project 2026 EPS of $4.67 (from $4.77) and 2027 EPS of $5.33 (from $5.40).
ACA's net debt stood at $1.4 billion at 3Q:25, for a total debt ratio of 38% and leverage ratio of 2.4x. We model net debt of $869 million (30%, 1.3x) at year-end 2027. ACA's solid balance sheet and record of strong cash flow generation support our moderate risk rating.
Our reduced $131 price target (from $134) is based on 28x our reduced 2026 EPS estimate of $4.67 (was $4.77).