We are reiterating our Buy rating and $22.50 price target and raising our 2025 revenue projection, but becoming more conservative on margins and introducing 2026 projections after Betterware de Mexico announced 4Q24 results which demonstrated material top line upside, driven by JAFRA Mexico's over 20% YoY revenue growth. That said, 4Q24 EBITDA and EPS were below Street expectations, as JAFRA Mexico margins slightly weakened YoY and the company was impacted by supply chain issues and FX. Further, initial 2025 guidance continued the trends with top line guide above and EBITDA below Street consensus. Given the uncertainty of the current times, management remains focused on the key drivers for the company's success over the least thirty years, driving market share gains with innovation and compelling offerings that make a difference in their consumers lives. We continue to believe Betterware has been overly punished by investors worried over the potential impact of new tariffs on Mexican goods. That said, given all the profits and the vast majority of revenue registered by Betterware are from Mexican consumer spending, we believe the impact of tariffs is overblown, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $22.50 price target for BWMX.

28 Feb 2025
BWMX; 4Q Review: Remaining Focused in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, PT

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BWMX; 4Q Review: Remaining Focused in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, PT
Medifast (MED:NYSE), 0 | Medifast, Inc. (MED:NYS), 0 | Betterware de Mexico, S.A.P.I. de C.V. (BWMX:NYS), 0 | DD3 Acquisition Corp (DDMX:NYSE), 0 | Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS:NYSE), 0 | Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. Class A (NUS:NYS), 0
- Published:
28 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Eric Beder -
Pages:
9 -
We are reiterating our Buy rating and $22.50 price target and raising our 2025 revenue projection, but becoming more conservative on margins and introducing 2026 projections after Betterware de Mexico announced 4Q24 results which demonstrated material top line upside, driven by JAFRA Mexico's over 20% YoY revenue growth. That said, 4Q24 EBITDA and EPS were below Street expectations, as JAFRA Mexico margins slightly weakened YoY and the company was impacted by supply chain issues and FX. Further, initial 2025 guidance continued the trends with top line guide above and EBITDA below Street consensus. Given the uncertainty of the current times, management remains focused on the key drivers for the company's success over the least thirty years, driving market share gains with innovation and compelling offerings that make a difference in their consumers lives. We continue to believe Betterware has been overly punished by investors worried over the potential impact of new tariffs on Mexican goods. That said, given all the profits and the vast majority of revenue registered by Betterware are from Mexican consumer spending, we believe the impact of tariffs is overblown, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $22.50 price target for BWMX.