In response to higher prices, recycling is expected to underpin platinum group metals (PGM) supply growth in 2026f. However, recycling supply growth may occur at a slower pace if working capital finance headwinds, and trade flow restrictions across the Middle East remain persistent.Individual prices in the 3E PGM basket have increased by 50% to 100% over the past year. With recycling supply being somewhat price elastic, we expect price led growth of 10% YoY in 2026 as our base case.However, platinum recycling supply has underperformed our expectations since 2022. Accordingly, further recycling underperformance would add to the 240 koz platinum market deficit forecast in 2026f and could result in palladium remaining in deficit rather than transitioning to a surplus in 2026f.Figure 1. Platinum recycling has underperformed forecastsSource: Metals Focus, WPIC estimates
