As the Iran War enters its second month, the direct impact on platinum demand appears modest, but higher interest rate expectations and a stronger US dollar could weigh on investment demand.We estimate the Middle East accounts for around 2.5% of global platinum demand and this could be impacted by a protracted conflict. However, restricting the Strait of Hormuz may have a greater impact on platinum’s automotive and industrial markets since the trade route is a key source of fossil fuel and helium feedstocks. We currently do not believe that auto or industrial platinum demand risks would erode our expected deficit of 240 koz in 2026f. However, changes to investor positioning in response to higher interest rate expectations and US dollar strength may be more impactful on platinum demand.Figure 2: The Iran War has led precious metals prices lowerSource: Bloomberg, WPIC research, N.B. 27 February was the last day before the war began
