Most popular equity research this week | 19-23 Feb

AA (AA/)

Re-set of estimates and no strategy surprises | Liberum, 22 Feb

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"The AA’s new strategy is to move from being a service company to a product and service company, targeting 5-8% EBITDA CAGR to FY 2023. There is no change to our 2018 estimates, but 2019 EBITDA and EPS estimates are reduced from before the update by 16% and 33%..."

Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY)

Share buy-back signals strong visibility on capital generation | AlphaValue, 21 Feb

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"Quarterly results showed no changes in underlying operating trends. The symbolic share buy-back announcement signals management’s strong visibility on future excess capital generation in spite of pending regulatory impacts, potential residual litigation charges or future pension contributions..."

Trakm8 (TKR)

Car Genie should be magic for Trakm8 | finnCap, 22 Feb

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"The AA strategy update has set out an ambitious plan for the business to move into the future; taking it from “a company helping when you break down to one actually predicting when you might break down in the first place”, flagging game-changing growth drivers in the areas of Connected Car and insurance. The key element enabling this refocused strategy will be its Car Genie product (provided by Trakm8) and it is set to see an extended rollout to “tens of thousands” of existing clients. We thus see significant upside in Trakm8 forecasts from FY 2019 for additional AA orders..."

Some signs of stability return

by Stockdale Securities, 21 Feb

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APC Technology | Braemar Shipping | James Cropper | ECSC | EU Supply | FDM | GetBusy | Private & Commercial Finance Group | Synectics | Sprue Aegis | Tricorn | Warpaint London

"Since our last missive, we have continued to experience volatility but there have been some signs recently of increasing stabilisation, although some nervousness clearly still persists. We have a Spring Statement from the Chancellor of Exchequer on 13 March where he will respond to the forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. We have the prospect of a rise in interest rates in the short run, with further increases likely over the medium term with negative implications for ‘defensives’. In Share News & Views, we comment on Hargreaves Services, RWS Holdings, Staffline and Synectics..."

Hotel Chocolat Group (HOTC)

Strong H1 and strategic progress | Liberum, 21 Feb

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"The H1 results give us confidence in our full year forecasts and reflect the continued trading momentum and strategic progress that is being achieved. Double-digit top line growth has flowed through to profit growth, despite cost headwinds, as the group benefits from underlying efficiency improvements..."

MJ Gleeson (GLE)

Unique model continues to deliver results | N+1 Singer, 19 Feb

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"Gleeson’s interims confirm another period of excellent progress, the highlight of which is the 31% growth in completions at Gleeson Homes. The Group is well on track for the full year with an increase in new site openings planned for the coming months as management puts the infrastructure in place to build towards its 2,000 home target. We increase our dividend forecasts by c.2% (with more potentially to come) noting a more generous dividend policy..."

MJ Gleeson (GLE)

On track for ambitious growth plans | Liberum, 19 Feb

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"Gleeson achieved strong first half results, with EPS up 22%, 5% better than expected. The Homes division grew operating profit by 46% as volumes rose by 31%, better than the 20% rate required to achieve doubling in sales by 2022..."

Dart Group (DTG)

Trading Update - Material Earnings Upgrades | Arden Partners, 19 Feb

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"Dart Group has provided a trading update this morning, indicating that improving pricing dynamics are likely to see FY18 underlying PBT materially ahead of current market expectations (Bloomberg consensus: £95m). In addition, the Group highlights that FY19 trading performance is expected to be “broadly” inline with FY18..."

Veltyco Group (VLTY)

Strong 2017 sets foundation for future years | Whitman Howard, 20 Feb

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"Although the macro scenario is still positive, more than 40% of LNGC projects under construction is behind schedule or slowing down, which has reduced GTT’s expected orders from 52 to 37 by 2022. As a reminder, LNG carriers remain GTT’s main activity, contributing 83% to sales in 2017..."

Dunelm Group (DNLM)

Wider WS losses short term, but no change to longer term opportunity | N+1 Singer, 20 Feb

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"Interims are a slight miss due to costs, and increased cost guidance, especially WS losses, points to downgrades of c4% this morning, which is disappointing so soon after the pre-close. The dividend was better than expected though driven by confidence in the future potential, which hasn’t changed, and cash generative dynamics. Significant investment in the last 2-3 years, incl. areas with rapid payback, and a low-ticket bias (£30 ATV), mean DNLM isn’t reliant on the backdrop. In particular, integration benefits from WorldStores have turbo-charged its online and category capability, further distancing it from the discounters..."