H1 results were well flagged, confirming an H1 PBT outturn of £3.6m (H1’24: £7.2m). Guidance is reiterated, and our profit forecasts are unchanged (FY25E PBT of £28.0m). The H2 weighting was well flagged and is supported by encouraging signs of recovery. 453 homes were already secured in the Gleeson Homes order book for completion during H2 (597 total order book) but it has also experienced a significant, 45% increase in the reservation rate to 0.77 in Jan. ’24 (2024: 0.53) vs. 0.55 in H1 (H1’24: 0.41). Gleeson Land has also had a strong start to H2, securing planning permission on three sites in January. Management guides to the division completing between four and eight site sales in H2. Strong progress on site openings in Homes, as well as significant portfolio growth in Land, positions Gleeson for continued growth over the medium term. We expect a return to double digit PBT growth in FY25. Strong earnings growth alone should drive a higher share price but we also see re-rating potential as the recovery becomes more established. We remain at Buy.
