Following the June update (click here for SCM note), Gleeson has today issued its y/e update. The FY25 adj. PBT outturn is expected to be c.£21m, at the lower end of the range (-5% vs. consensus). This primarily reflects some land sales slipping beyond year end. After a turbulent FY25 in Homes, a reorganisation sees several management and operational changes which are expected to boost delivery in FY26 and beyond. Looking to FY26, we reduce our PBT forecast by 7% (or 6% vs. consensus), adding prudence to both our Homes and Land forecasts. Whilst the outlook statement gives a justifiably downbeat view on the pace of market recovery, sales rates at Gleeson’s price point remain robust. Strong bid and win rates have been sustained in Land and the pipeline continues to build. With forecasts now prudently set, this gives reason for optimism as we enter FY26, albeit a period of delivery will be key. With the shares trading at a 26% discount to the NAV/share of 524p, we believe value is evident and we remain at Buy.
